Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Queretaro 1-3 Cruz Azul.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Club Queretaro, 27% draw, 38% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Cruz Azul at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. AllisonG
- 24B. DuarteD
- 13D. ReyesD
- 2L. AbasciaD
- 27D. ParraD
- 4C. GarciaM
- 8B. ParraM
- 16E. GimenezM
- 11M. CoronelM
- 7I. BenitoM
- 9A. AvilaF
- 1J. HernandezG
- 12Paulo VictorD
- 15C. Villanueva
- 29W. MadridM
- 28J. ArellanoM
- 20A. Alcala
- 30J. MartinezM
- 17D. MunozM
- 26E. PerezF
- 1A. GudinoG
- 55R. GonzalezD
- 33G. PioviD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 17A. GarciaM
- 6E. LiraM
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 10A. MontanoM
- 11C. EbereM
- 7N. IbanezF
- 23K. MierG
- 2A. MozoD
- 12A. MontesD
- 22J. RodarteD
- 16J. MarquezM
- 19C. RodriguezM
- 60A. Castro
- 21G. FernandezF
- 29C. RotondiF
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul
Club Queretaro
Liga MX
- L1-2away to Atletico San Luis21 October 2026
Cruz Azul
Liga MX
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca22 October 2026
- W5-0FC Juarez18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 20 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul
Club Queretaro and Cruz Azul have met 7 times in the records we hold, Cruz Azul has won 4 of them to Club Queretaro's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Cruz Azul won the last one 3–1 on 26 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 |
| Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Oct 2026
Liga MXClub Queretaro 1–3 Cruz Azul - 22 Apr 2026
Liga MXClub Queretaro 1–1 Cruz Azul - 25 Sep 2025
Liga MXCruz Azul 2–2 Club Queretaro - 24 Feb 2025
Liga MXCruz Azul 1–0 Club Queretaro - 24 Aug 2024
Liga MXClub Queretaro 0–2 Cruz Azul - 3 Feb 2024
Liga MXClub Queretaro 1–3 Cruz Azul - 25 Sep 2023
Liga MXCruz Azul 1–3 Club Queretaro
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Cruz Azul's attack rates 79% above Club Queretaro's, and Cruz Azul concede 6% fewer than Club Queretaro. That gives Cruz Azul the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 0.58 | 1.32 |
| Cruz Azul | 1.04 | 1.24 |
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Cruz Azul
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- A. Ávila60
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- A. Montaño65
- N. Ibáñez63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruz Azul won 3–1 at Club Queretaro. The model had made a win for Cruz Azul its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Montano (penalty) 19' for Cruz Azul, M. Coronel 33' for Club Queretaro, N. Ibanez 44' for Cruz Azul, C. Ebere 45+2' for Cruz Azul. On expected goals it finished 1.26–1.73.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Queretaro a 85.2% chance to finish in the top eight: 96.2% after a win, 87.1% after a draw, 75.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.9%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.
For Cruz Azul the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 93.3% going in: 99.8% after a win, 93.4% after a draw, 86.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.8%, 6.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club Queretaro v Cruz Azul has moved
First published on 12 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is Club Queretaro's chance of winning, down 9 points.
- Club Queretaro win35%▼ −9
- Draw27%=
- Cruz Azul win38%▲ +9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.