7 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

UCD vs Drogheda United Premier Division prediction & result

Tallaght Stadium, Dublin
Full time1 – 2

Final score: UCD 1-2 Drogheda United.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% UCD, 24% draw, 18% Drogheda United — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

UCD at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

UCD0%Draw6%Drogheda United94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Conor Keeley
13'
⚽Mark Doyleassist: Alfie Bates
19'
33'
⚽Ciaran Behan
66'
⚽Louis Dignamassist: Hugh Smith
🔁ethan brien oout: Shane Farrell
68'
🔁Andrew Quinnout: keegan ancelin
74'
74'
🔁Sam Norvalout: Stephen Mohan
🔁Alfie Batesout: Jago Godden
80'
🔁Thomas Oluwaout: Ryan Brennan
80'
85'
Carl Lennox
90+1'
Luca cailloce

Match stats — UCD vs Drogheda United

6%Possession94%
1Shots1
1On target1
6Corners4
0xG0

Goals against chances

UCD1 from 0.00 xGmore than the chances were worth
Drogheda United2 from 0.00 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

UCD 3-4-3
  • 44Fynn Michael Cordell TalleyG
  • 5Leo BurneyD
  • 22C. KeeleyD
  • 4A. QuinnD
  • 2E. AgbajeF
  • 15A. BatesM
  • 8Ethan O'BrienM
  • 3C. KaneD
  • 10B. KavanaghM
  • 14M. DoyleF
  • 11T. OluwaF
Substitutes
  • 18J. BolgerD
  • 19R. BrennanM
  • 17S. FarrellM
  • 6J. GoddenM
  • 36theo hennessyG
  • 32D. MareM
  • 25R. MarkeyF
  • 9K. AncelinF
  • 31K. CruiseD
Coach: K. Doherty
Drogheda United 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. KavanaghG
  • 5C. LennoxD
  • 14H. CurtisD
  • 2S. MurphyD
  • 6A. WellsD
  • 8L. DignamM
  • 7M. McCullaghM
  • 10C. BehanM
  • 24S. NorvalF
  • 11H.SmithM
Substitutes
  • 19C. BoltonM
  • 16N. DouglasG
  • 15Charles AkinrintayoF
  • 31S. MohanM
  • 13J. Goad
  • 12M. AlongeM
  • 22Thomas MorleyD
  • 21Goodness OgbannaM
  • 27A. SheerinD
Coach: W. O'Connor

Form going into UCD vs Drogheda United

UCD

No earlier matches on record this season.

Drogheda United

Premier Division

  • W2-0Galway United30 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Waterford23 October 2026
  • W2-0Derry City16 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers8 October 2026

What these results say

  • Drogheda United scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: UCD vs Drogheda United

  • 20 January 2026Drogheda United 1–1 UCDFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 September 2023Drogheda United 3–0 UCDPremier Division
  • 14 July 2023UCD 1–3 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
  • 26 May 2023Drogheda United 3–1 UCDPremier Division
  • 10 March 2023UCD 0–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
  • 21 October 2022UCD 2–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division

Leading scorers: UCD and Drogheda United

UCD

No leading scorers listed yet.

Drogheda United

GoalsAssists

  • M. Doyle111
  • B. Kavanagh65

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Drogheda United won 2–1 at UCD. The model had leaned towards a win for UCD at 58% and given a win for Drogheda United 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Mark Doyle 19' for UCD, Ciaran Behan 33' for Drogheda United, Louis Dignam 66' for Drogheda United. On expected goals it finished 0.00–0.00.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.