7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Gillingham vs Barrow FA Cup prediction & result

Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Gillingham 0-1 Barrow.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Gillingham, 24% draw, 24% Barrow — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gillingham at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gillingham6%Draw91%Barrow3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

54'
🔁R. Otegbayoout: Dani Amos
54'
🔁Rekeem Harperout: Innes Cameron
🔁Harry Waldockout: Garath McCleary
59'
🔁Robbie McKenzieout: Armani Little
78'
🔁Lamin Sillahout: S. Kendall
79'
80'
Innes Cameron
83'
🔁Sebastian Blake Thompsonout: Dan Mooney
83'
🔁Arian Allenout: Mikey Lane
84'
🔁isaac marriottout: Keaton Brodie Ward
90+2'
⚽Innes Cameronassist: Dan Mooney
Ronan Chapman Hale
90+6'

Match stats — Gillingham vs Barrow

52%Possession48%
10Shots10
3On target5
5Corners7

Line-ups

Gillingham 3-4-2-1
  • 1O. WrightG
  • 20J. DaleyD
  • 19O. BecklesD
  • 26L. DobbsD
  • 22N. FreemanM
  • 14R. McKenzieM
  • 6E. ColemanM
  • 16J. BrophyM
  • 24H. WaldockM
  • 10Ronan HaleM
  • 11L. SillahF
Substitutes
  • 5A. SmithD
  • 12G. McClearyM
  • 40R. LuthraG
  • 8A. LittleM
  • 30S. BoothF
  • 27M. LuxtonM
  • 32L. DayalM
  • 15Z. AlbarusM
  • 18S. KendallM
Coach: G. Ainsworth
Barrow 4-3-3
  • 1B. WinterbottomG
  • 2M. OakleyD
  • 5Corey EdwardsD
  • 20R. OtegbayoD
  • 19A. AllenD
  • 25Paul KalambayiM
  • 14Sebastian Blake ThompsonM
  • 26R. HarperM
  • 33Xavier Deandrae BenjaminF
  • 27I. MarriottF
  • 36T. Latty-FairweatherF
Substitutes
  • 22Dani AmosD
  • 23Dan MooneyF
  • 11G. WalkerD
  • 10Keaton Brodie WardM
  • 9A. ReidF
  • 32Mikey LaneF
  • 17Mohamed Katia KouyateF
  • 31N. CooperG
  • 18I. CameronF
Coach: A. Murray

Form going into Gillingham vs Barrow

Gillingham

League Two

  • W2-1away to Shrewsbury31 October 2026
  • L1-4Grimsby24 October 2026
  • D1-1Port Vale20 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026

Barrow

No earlier matches on record this season.

What these results say

  • Gillingham scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Gillingham conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Gillingham.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Gillingham vs Barrow

  • 28 February 2026Barrow 0–1 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 13 December 2025Gillingham 2–2 BarrowLeague Two
  • 8 February 2025Barrow 3–0 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 28 September 2024Gillingham 2–0 BarrowLeague Two
  • 13 April 2024Gillingham 3–0 BarrowLeague Two
  • 5 March 2024Barrow 2–0 GillinghamLeague Two

Leading scorers: Gillingham and Barrow

Gillingham

GoalsAssists

  • Ronan Hale61

Barrow

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Barrow won 1–0 at Gillingham. The model had leaned towards a win for Gillingham at 52% and given a win for Barrow 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Innes Cameron 90+2' for Barrow.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.