11 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Turkestan Arena, Turkestan
Full time0 1

Final score: Kairat Almaty 0-1 Levski Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Kairat Almaty, 27% draw, 38% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Levski Sofia at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kairat Almaty0%Draw4%Levski Sofia96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Everton Bala
13'
Reinaldoassist: Everton Bala
Olzhas Baibek
45+6'
🔁Olzhas Baibekout: Ismail Bekbolat
46'
Damir Kasabulat
60'
🔁Damir Kasabulatout: Edmilson
64'
73'
Aldair
79'
🔁Armstrong Oko-Flexout: Hevertton Santos
79'
🔁Aldairout: Mazire Soula
79'
🔁Everton Balaout: Maicon
83'
🔁Reinaldoout: Juan Perea
🔁Marc Gualout: Mansur Birkurmanov
84'
88'
Nikola Serafimov
89'
Juan Perea
Gustavo Mendonca
90+4'
90'
🔁Serginhoout: Asen Ivanov Mitkov

Match stats — Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia

56%Possession44%
20Shots9
6On target2
9Corners4

Line-ups

Kairat Almaty 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. AnarbekovG
  • 4D. KasabulatD
  • 25A. ShirobokovD
  • 44Lucas AfricoD
  • 3L. MataD
  • 8O. BaybekM
  • 13J. OksanenM
  • 24A. MrynskiyM
  • 22G. Mendonsa
  • 19O. JukkolaM
  • 28M. GualF
Substitutes
  • 82S. KalmurzaG
  • 30D. BuchG
  • 9EdmilsonF
  • 15M. BirkurmanovF
  • 27M. AbishM
  • 32A. NurgalievD
  • 20E. TapalovD
  • 5L. KurginD
  • 6A. SadybekovM
Coach: Rafael Urazbakhtin
Levski Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 92S. VutsovG
  • 21A. NevesD
  • 50K. DimitrovD
  • 31N. SerafimovD
  • 20A. CentellesD
  • 18G. TrdinM
  • 19M. MoubarikM
  • 11A. Oko-FlexM
  • 35SerginhoM
  • 17Everton BalaM
  • 7ReinaldoF
Substitutes
  • 78M. LukovG
  • 1O. VladimirovG
  • 4C. MakounD
  • 22M. SoulaF
  • 10A. MitkovM
  • 2S. HeverttonD
  • 3MaiconD
  • 9J. PereaF
  • 77A. RaychevF
Coach: Julio Velazquez

Form going into Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia

Kairat Almaty

  • L0-1away to Levski Sofia4 August 2026
  • W1-0Omonia Nicosia29 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia22 July 2026

Levski Sofia

  • W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 August 2026
  • W1-0Kairat Almaty4 August 2026
  • W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Universitatea Craiova29 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Kairat Almaty and Levski Sofia in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
1Levski SofiaFirst League9810214+1725

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Kairat Almaty has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · First League

Head-to-head: Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia

  • 11 August 2026Kairat Almaty 0–1 Levski SofiaUEFA Champions League
  • 4 August 2026Levski Sofia 1–0 Kairat AlmatyUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Kairat Almaty and Levski Sofia

Kairat Almaty

No leading scorers listed yet.

Levski Sofia

  • Reinaldo3 goals
  • A. Oko-Flex2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.