11 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Iberia 1999 vs Larne UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Mikheil Meskhi Stadium, Tbilisi
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FC Iberia 1999 2-1 Larne.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% FC Iberia 1999, 24% draw, 50% Larne — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Larne at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Iberia 19994%Draw91%Larne5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

59'
Sean Graham
Jemali Giorgi Jinjolava
63'
🔁G. Kutsiaout: A. Bartishvili
65'
65'
🔁M. Gibsonout: P. O'Neill
65'
🔁R. Dohertyout: J. Simpson
Nika Sikharulashvili
67'
⚽V. Bedoshviliassist: N. Sikharulashvili
74'
76'
⚽J. Simpson
🔁V. Bedoshviliout: A. Dzagania
77'
🔁B. Kardavaout: I. Alhassan
77'
78'
🔁M. Lustyout: J. Ukek
78'
🔁D. Sloanout: J. McEneff
Amiran Dzagania
84'
🔁G. Kobuladzeout: N. Bochorishvili
91'
97'
Jordan McEneff
101'
🔁T. Cosgroveout: L. Wallace
⚽N. Sikharulashviliassist: N. Dadiani
102'
106'
🔁S. Grahamout: C. McKendry
107'
Dan Bent
Nikoloz Dadiani
112'
🔁N. Sikharulashviliout: S. Ende
115'
🔁Z. Natchkebiaout: E. Kuliyev
115'

Match stats — FC Iberia 1999 vs Larne

68%Possession32%
5On target1
11Corners1

Line-ups

FC Iberia 1999 4-3-3
  • 31G. MakaridzeG
  • 4V. SelimovicD
  • 40G. KobuladzeD
  • 25A. AmisulashviliD
  • 5J. JinjolavaD
  • 6N. DadianiM
  • 27G. KutsiaM
  • 8B. KardavaM
  • 19N. SikharulashviliM
  • 10Z. Natchkebia
  • 24V. BedoshviliM
Substitutes
  • 1T. MegrelishviliG
  • 16R. KurtanidzeG
  • 9A. DzaganiaF
  • 11A. BartishviliM
  • 14I. AlhassanM
  • 17S. EndeF
  • 23E. KuliyevM
  • 29L. ChikhradzeF
  • 30N. BochorishviliD
Coach: Andriy Demchenko
Larne 4-3-3
  • 1R. FergusonG
  • 23T. CosgroveD
  • 3M. RidleyD
  • 26D. BentM
  • 4A. DonnellyD
  • 15R. DohertyM
  • 6C. GallagherM
  • 11S. GrahamD
  • 25D. SloanM
  • 45M. GibsonF
  • 30M. LustyF
Substitutes
  • 16J. CarneyG
  • 2L. WallaceD
  • 7C. McKendryM
  • 8M. Randall
  • 9P. O'NeillF
  • 14B. MageeM
  • 17J. UkekM
  • 19K. O'Hara
  • 22J. McEneffM
Coach: Gary Haveron

Form going into FC Iberia 1999 vs Larne

FC Iberia 1999

  • D0-0away to Larne4 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Slovan Bratislava29 July 2026
  • L0-2Slovan Bratislava21 July 2026

Larne

  • D0-0FC Iberia 19994 August 2026
  • L0-5away to FK Crvena Zvezda29 July 2026
  • L0-4FK Crvena Zvezda21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FC Iberia 1999 vs Larne

  • 11 August 2026FC Iberia 1999 2–1 LarneUEFA Europa League
  • 4 August 2026Larne 0–0 FC Iberia 1999UEFA Europa League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.