11 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Celje
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Celje 2-0 Ararat-Armenia.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Celje, 23% draw, 22% Ararat-Armenia — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Celje at 55% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celje99%Draw1%Ararat-Armenia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Alwyn Tera
19'
Hugo Oliveira
Leonardo Koutris
32'
🔁L. Koutrisout: B. Verbic
46'
55'
🔁A. Teraout: Benny
Artemijus Tutyškinas
64'
Milot Avdyli
66'
🔁P. Sirvysout: Y. Dukuly
69'
🔁A. Kucysout: M. Poplatnik
69'
73'
🔁H. Oliveiraout: M. Carlier
73'
🔁A. Serobyanout: Franca Carlos
Mark Zabukovnik
79'
⚽Y. Dukulyassist: M. Avdyli
83'
⚽B. Verbic
85'
Benjamin Verbič
86'
89'
🔁Z. Banjaquiout: A. Ndour
🔁S. Seslarout: I. Calusic
90+1'
90'
🔁K. Muradyanout: J. A. Balanta

Match stats — Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

50%Possession50%
8On target3
12Corners9

Line-ups

Celje 4-3-3
  • 1Z. LebanG
  • 2P. SirvysD
  • 4D. HrkaM
  • 6A. TutyskinasD
  • 33L. KoutrisD
  • 8M. KvesicM
  • 19M. ZabukovnikM
  • 10S. SeslarM
  • 77M. IvansekM
  • 47A. Kucys
  • 11M. AvdyliM
Substitutes
  • 12L. KolarG
  • 23Z. FrelihG
  • 3D. VuklisevicD
  • 7B. VerbicM
  • 17A. KotnikF
  • 20A. DionkouD
  • 25V. TushaM
  • 27I. CalusicD
  • 91Y. DukulyM
Coach: Vitor Campelos
Ararat-Armenia 4-3-3
  • 98Joao Bravim
  • 3Junior Julio
  • 43B. R. Wilson ValdezD
  • 47A. MalisD
  • 16E. GrigoryanD
  • 2H. OliveiraD
  • 19K. MuradyanM
  • 20A. TeraM
  • 77A. SerobyanM
  • 91Sandro LimaF
  • 11Z. BanjaquiM
Substitutes
  • 1A. NersesyanG
  • 5Luis FelipeD
  • 6M. AyvazyanM
  • 7Z. ShaghoyanM
  • 8J. A. BalantaM
  • 9A. EloyanF
  • 14B. PereiraD
  • 17M. CarlierM
  • 25A. NdourF
Coach: Tulipa

Form going into Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

Celje

  • L1-2away to Ararat-Armenia4 August 2026
  • D1-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë28 July 2026
  • D3-3away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 July 2026

Ararat-Armenia

  • W2-1Celje4 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers28 July 2026
  • W2-0Shamrock Rovers21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
34Celje100102-20
36Ararat-Armenia100114-30

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

  • 11 August 2026Celje 2–0 Ararat-ArmeniaUEFA Champions League
  • 4 August 2026Ararat-Armenia 2–1 CeljeUEFA Champions League
  • 24 September 2020Ararat-Armenia 1–0 CeljeUEFA Europa League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.