11 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade
Full time0 – 2

Final score: FK Crvena Zvezda 0-2 Hapoel Beer Sheva.

Before kick-off the model made it 76% FK Crvena Zvezda, 14% draw, 10% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 1.32, 7.14 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 76% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Crvena Zvezda0%Draw1%Hapoel Beer Sheva99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Itay Rotman
🔁J. Enemout: M. Arnautovic
46'
🔁T. Elsnikout: M. Abu Fani
46'
61'
⚽I. Zlatanovicassist: J. East
🔁V. Kostovout: M. Ivanic
62'
63'
Niv Yehoshua
66'
🔁G. Mizrahiout: H. Kanaan
66'
🔁N. Yehoshuaout: M. Abu Rumi
🔁O. Bukariout: M. Cham
73'
76'
🔁I. Zlatanovicout: D. T. Diop
79'
⚽J. Eastassist: E. Peretz
🔁N. Tiknizyanout: A. Katai
80'
Mohammad Abu Fani
90+3'
90+2'
🔁P. Amadorout: O. Davidzada
90+2'
🔁J. Eastout: A. Ohana

Match stats — FK Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

4%Possession96%
2On target6
3Corners3

Line-ups

FK Crvena Zvezda 4-2-3-1
  • 1MatheusG
  • 66Seol Young-WooD
  • 32D. LuckassenD
  • 25S. ErakovicD
  • 23N. TiknizyanD
  • 21T. ElsnikM
  • 33R. KrunicM
  • 14O. BukariM
  • 22V. KostovM
  • 17Bruno DuarteF
  • 9J. EnemF
Substitutes
  • 77I. GutesaG
  • 4M. IvanicM
  • 7M. ArnautovicF
  • 8K. BalovM
  • 10A. KataiM
  • 13M. VeljkovicD
  • 15M. Abu FaniM
  • 27M. StrikaD
  • 30F. Tebo UchennaD
Coach: Dejan Stankovic
Hapoel Beer Sheva 4-3-3
  • 1O. MarcianoG
  • 2G. MizrahiD
  • 4Miguel VitorD
  • 12I. RotmanD
  • 5P. AmadorD
  • 7E. PeretzM
  • 25Lucas VenturaM
  • 28N. YehoshuaM
  • 20J. EastF
  • 66I. ZlatanovicF
  • 9Z. AhmedF
Substitutes
  • 34M. WolffG
  • 36Y. Shani
  • 8H. KanaanF
  • 11A. C. GanahF
  • 13O. DavidzadaD
  • 18R. LevyM
  • 19A. OhanaF
  • 21Y. KorenF
  • 23I. HazutM
Coach: Ran Kozuch

Form going into FK Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

FK Crvena Zvezda

  • W2-0Novi Pazar8 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva4 August 2026
  • W5-0Larne29 July 2026
  • W4-0away to Larne21 July 2026

Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • W1-0FK Crvena Zvezda4 August 2026
  • W2-0Vikingur Reykjavik29 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Vikingur Reykjavik21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • 11 August 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 0–2 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Champions League
  • 4 August 2026Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: FK Crvena Zvezda and Hapoel Beer Sheva

FK Crvena Zvezda

  • V. Kostov4 goals1 assists

Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • I. Zlatanović2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.