11 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Sabah FA vs Aarhus UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Bank Respublika Arena
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Sabah FA 4-0 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Sabah FA, 25% draw, 34% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sabah FA at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sabah FA99%Draw1%Aarhus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
Rasmus Carstensen
32'
Jacob Andersen
🔁O. Mbinaout: X. Severina
58'
⚽V. Simicassist: J. Mickels
59'
64'
🔁G. Linksout: F. Emmery
65'
🔁R. Carstensenout: M. Anderson
66'
Eric Kahl
⚽S. Solvetassist: A. Isayev
67'
72'
🔁M. Knudsenout: J. Serra
⚽J. Mickels
78'
81'
🔁C. Roslerout: M. Camara
🔁A. Isayevout: C. Nwachukwu
82'
82'
🔁J. Jonssonout: S. Jorgensen
⚽X. Severinaassist: A. Zedadka
89'
🔁J. Mickelsout: R. Fernandes
90+3'
🔁A. Zedadkaout: T. Mutallimov
90+4'
🔁I. Lepinjicaout: A. Khaybulaev
90+3'

Match stats — Sabah FA vs Aarhus

50%Possession50%
29Shots14
10On target5
7Corners4

Line-ups

Sabah FA 4-2-3-1
  • 92S. PokatilovG
  • 80A. ZedadkaD
  • 3S. SolvetD
  • 5R. DashdamirovD
  • 27T. PuchaczD
  • 7U. RakhmonaliyevM
  • 13I. LepinjicaM
  • 21V. SimicM
  • 10A. IsayevM
  • 20J. MickelsM
  • 99O. MbinaF
Substitutes
  • 94R. MirzammadovG
  • 1A. RamazanovG
  • 88R. FernandesM
  • 16R. RustamliM
  • 33E. A. Santos JuniorD
  • 23Y. LachaabF
  • 8C. NwachukwuF
  • 17T. Mutallimov
  • 11K. ParrisM
Coach: Valdas Dambrauskas
Aarhus 3-1-4-2
  • 21M. HedenstadG
  • 26J. AndersenD
  • 25C. RoslerD
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 16J. JonssonM
  • 29R. CarstensenM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 10K. Arnstad
  • 11G. LinksM
  • 31T. BechF
  • 28J. BogereF
Substitutes
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 42M. van der RaadG
  • 39F. EmmeryF
  • 45C. StorchD
  • 14T. MolgaardD
  • 13J. SerraF
  • 23M. AndersonM
  • 7M. SolbakkenM
  • 8S. JorgensenM
Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Form going into Sabah FA vs Aarhus

Sabah FA

  • L1-2away to Aarhus5 August 2026
  • W2-0away to KuPS28 July 2026

Aarhus

  • W2-1Sabah FA5 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Lech Poznan29 July 2026
  • D1-1Brondby25 July 2026
  • L1-4Lech Poznan21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Sabah FA and Aarhus in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
34Sabah FAUEFA Champions League100104-40
11AarhusSuperliga8044915-64

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Champions League · Superliga

Head-to-head: Sabah FA vs Aarhus

  • 11 August 2026Sabah FA 4–0 AarhusUEFA Champions League
  • 5 August 2026Aarhus 2–1 Sabah FAUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Sabah FA and Aarhus

Sabah FA

  • J. Mickels3 goals1 assists
  • V. Simić3 goals

Aarhus

  • J. Serra3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.