11 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Kaunas
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Kauno Žalgiris 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Kauno Žalgiris, 27% draw, 47% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kauno Žalgiris0%Draw4%Dinamo Zagreb96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Anton Tolordava
10'
Joris Moutachy
11'
19'
⚽L. Kacavendaassist: D. Beljo
30'
⚽J. Misic
32'
Ivan Filipović
34'
🔁M. Lisicaout: I. Nevistic
🔁Renan Oliveiraout: G. Debeljuh
46'
46'
🔁M. Perez Vinlofout: B. Goda
46'
🔁L. Stojkovicout: G. Vidovic
54'
Dion Drena Beljo
⚽G. Debeljuh
56'
🔁L. Krekovicout: Leo Ribeiro
57'
🔁M. Burbaout: I. Fiolic
57'
61'
🔁D. Beljoout: F. Topic
🔁F. Baldassarraout: A. Kalik
66'
72'
🔁L. Kacavendaout: N. Galesic
🔁A. Benchaibout: F. Ourega
79'

Match stats — Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb

61%Possession39%
7On target5
8Corners1

Line-ups

Kauno Žalgiris 4-1-4-1
  • 22D. MikelionisG
  • 45J. MoutachyD
  • 3A. TolordavaD
  • 77R. LekiatasD
  • 33M. KonatarD
  • 32F. BaldassarraM
  • 24M. BurbaF
  • 7A. BenchaibF
  • 14V. SlivkaM
  • 9L. KrekovicM
  • 19Renan OliveiraF
Substitutes
  • 55T. SvedkauskasG
  • 8Y. KarashimaM
  • 10G. SirgedasM
  • 15Leo RibeiroM
  • 17I. FiolicM
  • 20A. KalikM
  • 23A. HernandezD
  • 27G. DebeljuhF
  • 37N. Iyobosa EdokpolorD
Coach: Eivinas Cerniauskas
Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
  • 44I. FilipovicG
  • 25M. ValincicD
  • 36S. DominguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22M. Perez VinlofD
  • 80L. KacavendaM
  • 27J. MisicM
  • 7L. StojkovicM
  • 21M. LisicaM
  • 9D. BeljoF
  • 99M. OrsicM
Substitutes
  • 1D. ZagoracG
  • 33I. NevisticG
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 6S. RadeljicD
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 10G. VidovicM
  • 11A. HoxhaF
  • 13P. TabinasD
  • 14S. PrevljakF
Coach: Mario Kovacevic

Form going into Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb

Kauno Žalgiris

  • L0-5away to Dinamo Zagreb4 August 2026
  • W1-0KI Klaksvik29 July 2026
  • D0-0away to KI Klaksvik21 July 2026

Dinamo Zagreb

  • W5-0Kauno Žalgiris4 August 2026
  • W2-0NK Slaven Belupo31 July 2026
  • W3-2FC Thun28 July 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Thun21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb

  • 11 August 2026Kauno Žalgiris 1–2 Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Champions League
  • 4 August 2026Dinamo Zagreb 5–0 Kauno ŽalgirisUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Kauno Žalgiris and Dinamo Zagreb

Kauno Žalgiris

  • V. Slivka2 goals

Dinamo Zagreb

  • D. Beljo2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.