8 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Kalmar FF vs Sirius Allsvenskan prediction & result

Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar
Referee: Mohammed Al-Hakim
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Kalmar FF 1-0 Sirius.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Kalmar FF, 25% draw, 54% Sirius — fair odds of 4.76, 4.00 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sirius at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kalmar FF94%Draw6%Sirius0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Amara Camara
28'
55'
🔁Melker Heierout: N. Jönsson
55'
🔁Zalán Vancsaout: Jesper Uneken
🔁vilmer tyrenout: Alexander Almqvist
60'
64'
Simon Sandberg
66'
Oscar Krusnell
🔁Marius Soderbackout: Kasper Paananen
72'
🔁Amara Camaraout: Melker Hallberg
72'
77'
🔁Victor Svenssonout: Charlie Nildén
87'
🔁Simon Sandbergout: Mohamed Soumah

Match stats — Kalmar FF vs Sirius

36%Possession64%
6Shots20
2On target4
1Corners3
1xG1.76

Goals against chances

Kalmar FF1 from 1.00 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sirius0 from 1.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kalmar FF 4-4-2
  • 1S. BrolinG
  • 26M. YlitolvaD
  • 39L. SætraD
  • 4J. LöfgrenD
  • 2V. LarssonD
  • 13Amara CamaraM
  • 23R. GojaniM
  • 17C. GustafssonM
  • 24C. SagoeM
  • 10M. SöderbäckF
  • 6V. TyrenF
Substitutes
  • 12Z. RåvikD
  • 11K. PaananenF
  • 5M. HallbergM
  • 70E. NnamaniF
  • 3S. ØverbyD
  • 20A. AlmqvistD
  • 30J. KindbergG
  • 22T. LauritsenM
  • 25N. ShamounM
Coach: T. Koskela
Sirius 4-2-3-1
  • 34D. CelicG
  • 5H. CastegrenD
  • 15S. SandbergD
  • 4T. AnkerD
  • 22O. KrusnellD
  • 10M. HeierM
  • 6M. LindbergM
  • 7J. PerssonM
  • 24V. SvenssonM
  • 30Z. VancsaM
  • 11I. BjerkeboF
Substitutes
  • 1I. DiawaraG
  • 20V. EkströmD
  • 17N. JönssonF
  • 21C. NildénM
  • 2Mohamed SoumahD
  • 9J. UnekenF
  • 18A. WikmanM
  • 25O. AdinduF
  • 29Ake AnderssonF
Coach: Andreas Engelmark

Form going into Kalmar FF vs Sirius

Kalmar FF

Allsvenskan

  • D0-0away to Mjallby AIF2 November 2026
  • L0-1Gais29 October 2026
  • L0-3IF Brommapojkarna24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Degerfors IF19 October 2026

Sirius

Allsvenskan

  • W2-0Halmstad3 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Hammarby FF29 October 2026
  • L1-2AIK Stockholm24 October 2026
  • D2-2IF Elfsborg18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Kalmar FF failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kalmar FF failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kalmar FF conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sirius failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sirius scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sirius conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Kalmar FF2875162442-1826
2Sirius2818465835+2358

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kalmar FF vs Sirius

  • 2 May 2026Sirius 3–2 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • 11 August 2024Sirius 3–1 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • 8 April 2024Kalmar FF 1–2 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 13 August 2023Sirius 3–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
  • 3 May 2023Kalmar FF 2–2 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 24 October 2022Sirius 0–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Kalmar FF and Sirius

Kalmar FF

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.

Sirius

GoalsAssists

  • I. Bjerkebo157
  • R. Ure152

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kalmar FF beat Sirius 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sirius at 54% and given a win for Kalmar FF 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Amara Camara 28' for Kalmar FF. On expected goals it finished 1.00–1.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kalmar FF a 3.5% chance to finish in the bottom two: 0.0% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 5.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.

For Sirius the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 49.0% going in: 62.1% after a win, 38.8% after a draw, 19.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.9%, 29.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.