8 November 2026, 18:15 UTC

Fredrikstad vs Brann Eliteserien prediction & result

Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad
Referee: Jorgen Haugen
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Fredrikstad 2-2 Brann.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Fredrikstad, 27% draw, 41% Brann — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Brann at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fredrikstad95%Draw5%Brann0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Isak Helstad Amundsen
3'
•Max Nilsson
25'
35'
Fredrik Knudsen
⚽Gabriel Wessehassist: Henrik Langaas Skogvold
52'
57'
Niklas Castro
59'
🔁Neraysho Kasanwirjoout: Vetle Winger Dragsnes
59'
🔁Niklas Castroout: Ulrik Mathisen
⚽Max Nilsson
60'
66'
Noah Jean Holm
70'
Kristian Eriksen
75'
🔁Saevar Atli Magnussonout: Julian Laegreid
🔁Solomon Owusuout: Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen
75'
🔁Johannes Andres Hummelvoll-Nunezout: Salim Laghzaoui
75'
75'
🔁Noah Jean Holmout: Bård Finne
🔁Gabriel Wessehout: Benjamin Thoresen Faraas
79'
82'
⚽Kristall Mani Ingasonassist: Joachim Soltvedt
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes
86'
🔁Isak Helstad Amundsenout: Simen Rafn
87'
90+6'
⚽Bård Finneassist: Julian Laegreid

Match stats — Fredrikstad vs Brann

46%Possession54%
20Shots11
7On target7
3Corners9
2.26xG0.9

Goals against chances

Fredrikstad2 from 2.26 xGabout what the chances were worth
Brann2 from 0.90 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fredrikstad 3-4-3
  • 77M. BørsheimG
  • 38I. AmundsenD
  • 4F. HolméD
  • 28S. OwusuD
  • 16D. EidM
  • 6S. Leach HolmM
  • 14M. NilssonM
  • 19F. GhebreyohannesM
  • 29G. WessehF
  • 23H. SkogvoldF
  • 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
Substitutes
  • 7B. ThoresenF
  • 12U. FredriksenD
  • 21J. JezierskiM
  • 9S. LaghzaouiM
  • 2K. OkpalekeD
  • 5S. RafnD
  • 30J. TorkildsenG
  • 27Chris PondyD
Coach: Casper Röjkjaer
Brann 4-3-3
  • 12S. NilsenG
  • 2L. CornicD
  • 3F. KnudsenD
  • 21N. KasanwirjoD
  • 17J. SoltvedtD
  • 22S. MagnússonM
  • 25N. Jensen WassbergM
  • 16K. EriksenM
  • 10K. IngasonF
  • 29N. HolmF
  • 9N. CastroF
Substitutes
  • 11B. FinneF
  • 43B. HaugenM
  • 39J. LægreidF
  • 14U. MathisenM
  • 15J. TorsvikD
  • 1M. DyngelandG
  • 20V. DragsnesD
  • 37S. VindenesM
Coach: E. Horneland

Form going into Fredrikstad vs Brann

Fredrikstad

Eliteserien

  • L0-3Rosenborg31 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Molde25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Viking17 October 2026
  • D1-1Tromso11 October 2026

Brann

Eliteserien

  • W3-2Molde1 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Lillestrom25 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Valerenga18 October 2026
  • L0-2Viking9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Fredrikstad did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Fredrikstad conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Fredrikstad scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Brann conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Brann failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Brann scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Fredrikstad2686123146-1530
7Brann26103134744+333

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Brann

  • 2 May 2026Brann 3–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • 28 September 2025Brann 1–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • 29 March 2025Fredrikstad 3–0 BrannEliteserien
  • 18 August 2024Fredrikstad 0–4 BrannEliteserien
  • 7 April 2024Brann 0–2 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • 22 October 2022Fredrikstad 1–3 Brann1. Division

Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Brann

Fredrikstad

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Brann

GoalsAssists

  • N. Holm83
  • K. Ingason83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fredrikstad and Brann drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Brann at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gabriel Wesseh 52' for Fredrikstad, Max Nilsson 60' for Fredrikstad, Kristall Mani Ingason 82' for Brann, Bård Finne 90+6' for Brann. On expected goals it finished 2.26–0.90.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fredrikstad a 7.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.4% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 11.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.3%.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fredrikstad v Brann has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is Brann's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Fredrikstad win32%▼ −5
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Brann win41%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.