8 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien prediction & result

Briskeby Arena, Hamar
Referee: Tore Hansen
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Ham-Kam 3-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Ham-Kam, 27% draw, 35% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ham-Kam at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ham-Kam99%Draw1%Sarpsborg 08 FF0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Patrick Metcalfe
15'
35'
Claus Babo Niyukuri
58'
Daniel Seland Karlsbakk
🔁David Benjaminout: Duarte Moreira
67'
🔁Fredrik Sjolstadout: Loris Mettler
68'
73'
🔁Daniel Seland Karlsbakkout: Camil Mmaee Nwameben
⚽Henrik Udahl
76'
81'
🔁Aimar Sherout: Bop Guèye
81'
🔁Sondre Sorlieout: Peter Reinhardsen
81'
🔁Anders Hiimout: Andreas Hansen
83'
Marius Lode
⚽Loris Mettlerassist: João Paulo Rodrigues Barros
86'
88'
🔁Victor Emanuel Halvorsenout: Noa Williams
🔁Aksel Baran Poturout: Blerton Isufi
90'
90'
Olaus Jair Skarsem
⚽Snorre Strand Nilsenassist: Blerton Isufi
90+3'
🔁Henrik Udahlout: William Osnes-Ringen
90+3'

Match stats — Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

58%Possession42%
21Shots13
6On target4
8Corners5
3.48xG1.23

Goals against chances

Ham-Kam3 from 3.48 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sarpsborg 08 FF0 from 1.23 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ham-Kam 5-3-2
  • 12M. SandbergG
  • 22S. NilsenD
  • 2M. GjoneD
  • 23F. SjølstadD
  • 27João BarrosD
  • 5A. AndresenD
  • 26P. MetcalfeM
  • 14L. MaresM
  • 17A. PoturM
  • 28David BenjaminF
  • 19H. UdahlF
Substitutes
  • 3E. Amundsen-DayD
  • 29B. IsufiM
  • 7V. JónssonM
  • 10L. MettlerM
  • 18Duarte MoreiraF
  • 4H. OpsahlD
  • 6W. Osnes-RingenM
  • 13S. ØstraatG
  • 16A. TrondsenM
Coach: T. Myhre
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
  • 1J. PrytsG
  • 12C. NiyukuriD
  • 2M. LodeD
  • 24S. RostedD
  • 21A. HiimD
  • 10S. SørliM
  • 8S. ChristiansenM
  • 6A. SherM
  • 77O. SkarsemM
  • 11D. KarlsbakkF
  • 22V. HalvorsenF
Substitutes
  • 7Camil Mmaee NwamebenM
  • 18Bop GueyeM
  • 5L. HøylandD
  • 33A. NibeM
  • 87L. ØyG
  • 20P. ReinhardsenD
  • 32E. WichneD
  • 17N. WilliamsM
  • 50M. M. EidalD
Coach: E. Sel

Form going into Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Ham-Kam

Eliteserien

  • D2-2away to KFUM Oslo1 November 2026
  • L0-3Rosenborg24 October 2026
  • L0-2Bodo/Glimt17 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Start11 October 2026

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Eliteserien

  • L2-4Kristiansund BK1 November 2026
  • W2-1Aalesund25 October 2026
  • L0-3Rosenborg18 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Aalesund11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Ham-Kam conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ham-Kam failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Ham-Kam had three goals or more.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Sarpsborg 08 FF had three goals or more.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Ham-Kam2686123853-1530
9Sarpsborg 08 FF2687113242-1031

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • 26 July 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 26 March 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 February 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–2 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
  • 31 August 2025Ham-Kam 1–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 11 May 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 4–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 7 March 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Ham-Kam beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–0. The model had made a win for Ham-Kam its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Henrik Udahl 76' for Ham-Kam, Loris Mettler 86' for Ham-Kam, Snorre Strand Nilsen 90+3' for Ham-Kam. Sent off: Claus Babo Niyukuri (Sarpsborg 08 FF) 35'. On expected goals it finished 3.48–1.23.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ham-Kam a 24.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.9% after a win, 27.0% after a draw, 39.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.9%, 13.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ham-Kam v Sarpsborg 08 FF has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 36% / 27% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Ham-Kam's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Ham-Kam win38%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Sarpsborg 08 FF win35%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.