Kasımpaşa vs Amed Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Kasımpaşa 2-2 Amed.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Kasımpaşa, 28% draw, 30% Amed — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Kasımpaşa at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kasımpaşa vs Amed
Line-ups
- 1A. GianniotisG
- 2Cláudio WinckD
- 4A. ArousD
- 27M. IlieD
- 45A. KarapoD
- 16A. BaldurssonM
- 26K. DemirbayM
- 50G. YalçınM
- 19M. RaffertyM
- 7A. KolM
- 9A. BenedyczakF
- 23Sinan AlkaşF
- 5J. JessenD
- 14K. MouangaD
- 8A. MüjdeM
- 17J. Rak-SakyiF
- 25A. YanarG
- 51Elson MendesM
- 35M. DenizF
- 30Ahmet Taha DağbaşıD
- 40A. LafontG
- 33A. CisséD
- 4D. BatesD
- 5L. DellovaD
- 7E. KrasniqiM
- 22R. RavelosonM
- 18G. GülM
- 17U. MeraşM
- 91D. SabiaF
- 45M. DiagneF
- 10S. BalletF
- 8F. SoyalpM
- 6C. ÜstündagM
- 21M. YeşilD
- 99G. OrbanF
- 93R. LutinM
- 97B. KizildemirM
- 47K. DemirtaşD
- 3M. AcerD
- 27B. BozanG
Form going into Kasımpaşa vs Amed
Kasımpaşa
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Başakşehir30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Çorum FK22 August 2026
- D1-1Trabzonspor15 August 2026
Amed
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Trabzonspor31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor24 August 2026
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 20 |
| 3 | Amed | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Kasımpaşa and Amed
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak72
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban104
- D. Sabia61
- S. Ballet41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kasımpaşa and Amed drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Kasımpaşa at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Güven Yalçın 20' for Kasımpaşa, Adrian Benedyczak 52' for Kasımpaşa, Gift Orban 59' for Amed, Gift Orban 83' for Amed.
How the call on Kasımpaşa v Amed has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Amed's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Kasımpaşa win42%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Amed win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.