6 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Kasımpaşa vs Amed Süper Lig prediction & result

Istanbul
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Kasımpaşa 2-2 Amed.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Kasımpaşa, 28% draw, 30% Amed — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kasımpaşa at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kasımpaşa5%Draw92%Amed3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Güven Yalçınassist: Claudio Winck
20'
45'
🔁Mbaye Diagneout: Gift Orban
45'
🔁Gökhan Gülout: Furkan Soyalp
⚽Adrian Benedyczakassist: Marcus Rafferty
52'
58'
Dia Saba
59'
⚽Gift Orban
66'
🔁Samuel Balletout: Rayan Lutin
🔁Marcus Raffertyout: Elson Mendes
67'
🔁Andri Fannar Baldurssonout: Emirhan Boz
72'
Kerem Demirbay
76'
77'
🔁Amadou Cisséout: Mohamed Khalil
🔁Adrian Benedyczakout: Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
82'
🔁Kerem Demirbayout: Atakan Müjde
82'
83'
⚽Gift Orbanassist: Mohamed Khalil
86'
🔁Dia Sabaout: Mehmet Yesil
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
90+1'
Emirhan Boz
90+3'
90+4'
David Bates
Güven Yalçın
90+4'
Ali Yavuz Kol
90+5'

Match stats — Kasımpaşa vs Amed

44%Possession56%
14Shots14
7On target4
2Corners9

Line-ups

Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. GianniotisG
  • 2Cláudio WinckD
  • 4A. ArousD
  • 27M. IlieD
  • 45A. KarapoD
  • 16A. BaldurssonM
  • 26K. DemirbayM
  • 50G. YalçınM
  • 19M. RaffertyM
  • 7A. KolM
  • 9A. BenedyczakF
Substitutes
  • 23Sinan AlkaşF
  • 5J. JessenD
  • 14K. MouangaD
  • 8A. MüjdeM
  • 17J. Rak-SakyiF
  • 25A. YanarG
  • 51Elson MendesM
  • 35M. DenizF
  • 30Ahmet Taha DağbaşıD
Coach: E. Belözoğlu
Amed 3-4-3
  • 40A. LafontG
  • 33A. CisséD
  • 4D. BatesD
  • 5L. DellovaD
  • 7E. KrasniqiM
  • 22R. RavelosonM
  • 18G. GülM
  • 17U. MeraşM
  • 91D. SabiaF
  • 45M. DiagneF
  • 10S. BalletF
Substitutes
  • 8F. SoyalpM
  • 6C. ÜstündagM
  • 21M. YeşilD
  • 99G. OrbanF
  • 93R. LutinM
  • 97B. KizildemirM
  • 47K. DemirtaşD
  • 3M. AcerD
  • 27B. BozanG
Coach: B. Hasi

Form going into Kasımpaşa vs Amed

Kasımpaşa

  • D1-1away to Başakşehir30 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Çorum FK22 August 2026
  • D1-1Trabzonspor15 August 2026

Amed

  • W2-1Trabzonspor31 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Kocaelispor24 August 2026
  • W3-0Erzurumspor FK16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Kasımpaşa523075+29
3Amed5311125+710

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kasımpaşa vs Amed

  • 6 September 2026Kasımpaşa 2–2 AmedSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Kasımpaşa and Amed

Kasımpaşa

  • A. Benedyczak4 goals1 assists
  • G. Yalçın2 goals

Amed

  • G. Orban6 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.