6 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor Süper Lig prediction & result

Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Izmit
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Kocaelispor 1-0 Samsunspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Kocaelispor, 31% draw, 32% Samsunspor — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kocaelispor at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kocaelispor97%Draw3%Samsunspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Florian Aye
26'
Massadio Haïdara
28'
🔁Ugur Kaan Yildizout: Mahamadou Susoho
45'
🔁Daniel Agyeiout: Makana Baku
45'
🔁Berkan Kutluout: Tobias Gulliksen
68'
69'
🔁Samed Onurout: Enes Albak
77'
🔁Yalçın Kayanout: Igor Drapinski
🔁Florian Ayeout: Metehan Altunbas
82'
88'
🔁Antoine Sekongoout: Strahinja Erakovic
🔁Gonçalo Sousaout: Emir Ortakaya
90'

Match stats — Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor

44%Possession56%
9Shots19
4On target4
4Corners4

Line-ups

Kocaelispor 4-1-4-1
  • 83S. ÖztaşdelenG
  • 2A. DijksteelD
  • 4T. ZoukrouD
  • 6M. MaglicaD
  • 21M. HaïdaraD
  • 14ShowM
  • 7D. AgyeiM
  • 22U. YıldızM
  • 10B. KutluM
  • 11Gonçalo Santos SousaM
  • 97F. AyéF
Substitutes
  • 26M. AltunbaşF
  • 32M. BakuM
  • 27Ege BilimM
  • 75T. BingölD
  • 3M. CinanD
  • 8T. GulliksenM
  • 5E. OrtakayaD
  • 41O. ÖztongaD
  • 23O. PiriG
Coach: S. İnan
Samsunspor 4-4-2
  • 1O. KocukG
  • 2J. MendesD
  • 22Y. ÇiftD
  • 34G. GuarinoD
  • 17L. TómassonD
  • 20Y. KayanM
  • 5C. YükselM
  • 8S. OnurM
  • 11E. KılınçM
  • 30Saikuba JarjuF
  • 42Y. SekongoF
Substitutes
  • 16S. ErakovićD
  • 13Efe ÜstünG
  • 3I. DrapińskiD
  • 25B. BayazıtG
  • 23E. AlbakD
  • 29H. TanD
Coach: Thorsten Fink

Form going into Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor

Kocaelispor

  • W2-1away to Konyaspor29 August 2026
  • W2-0Amed24 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Başakşehir16 August 2026

Samsunspor

  • L0-2Fenerbahçe30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Rizespor22 August 2026
  • D3-3Göztepe17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Kocaelispor530254+19
13Samsunspor5113611-54

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor

  • 6 September 2026Kocaelispor 1–0 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 24 January 2026Samsunspor 0–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
  • 16 August 2025Kocaelispor 0–1 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 21 January 2022Samsunspor 3–0 Kocaelispor1. Lig
  • 28 August 2021Kocaelispor 1–0 Samsunspor1. Lig
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.