11 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Merkur-Arena, Graz
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Sturm Graz 0-1 Fenerbahçe.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Sturm Graz, 20% draw, 58% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 4.55, 5.00 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fenerbahçe at 58% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sturm Graz0%Draw4%Fenerbahçe96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

40'
Nélson Semedo
45'
Archie Brown
🔁S. Jattaout: B. Beganovic
61'
🔁A. Malicout: J. Heil
61'
🔁A. Kayomboout: N. Weiper
61'
62'
🔁N. Semedoout: M. Muldur
63'
🔁M. Asensioout: Fred
63'
🔁M. Greenwoodout: O. Aydin
66'
⚽Talisca (pen)
🔁J. Gorenc Stankovicout: R. Fosso
70'
73'
🔁N. Kanteout: I. Yuksek
77'
🔁Taliscaout: V. Muriqi
🔁P. Petrovicout: P. Koller
79'
Jeyland Mitchell
84'
89'
Kerem Aktürkoğlu

Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe

50%Possession50%
19Shots11
2On target6
7Corners6

Line-ups

Sturm Graz 4-4-2
  • 53D. KhudyakovG
  • 23A. MalicD
  • 2J. MitchellD
  • 21P. PetrovicD
  • 18E. SogloD
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
  • 39L. WeinhandlM
  • 43J. HodlM
  • 11A. KayomboF
  • 20S. JattaF
Substitutes
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 41E. LorenzG
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 80R. FossoM
  • 26B. BeganovicF
  • 28J. HeilM
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 17S. WlodarczykF
Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 34M. GunokG
  • 27N. SemedoD
  • 37M. SkriniarD
  • 15N. AkeD
  • 3A. BrownD
  • 6M. GuendouziM
  • 91N. KanteM
  • 11M. GreenwoodM
  • 10M. AsensioM
  • 9K. AkturkogluM
  • 94TaliscaF
Substitutes
  • 13T. CetinG
  • 75K. SapazG
  • 7FredM
  • 18M. MuldurD
  • 5I. YuksekM
  • 14Y. E. DemirD
  • 26S. CherifF
  • 19V. MuriqiF
  • 4C. SoyuncuD
Coach: Ismail Kartal

Form going into Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe

Sturm Graz

  • W2-0away to TSV Hartberg8 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Fenerbahçe5 August 2026
  • D1-1away to WSG Wattens1 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Heart of Midlothian28 July 2026
  • W4-0Heart of Midlothian21 July 2026

Fenerbahçe

  • W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe

  • 11 August 2026Sturm Graz 0–1 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League
  • 5 August 2026Fenerbahçe 2–0 Sturm GrazUEFA Champions League
  • 3 August 2017Fenerbahçe 1–1 Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League
  • 27 July 2017Sturm Graz 1–2 FenerbahçeUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe

Sturm Graz

No leading scorers listed yet.

Fenerbahçe

  • Talisca4 goals
  • M. Greenwood2 goals2 assists
  • A. Brown2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.