18 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal Khuzestan Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Takhti Stadium, Khorramabad
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Kheybar Khorramabad 2-1 Esteghlal Khuzestan.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Kheybar Khorramabad, 23% draw, 20% Esteghlal Khuzestan — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kheybar Khorramabad at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kheybar Khorramabad97%Draw3%Esteghlal Khuzestan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽H. Hajiaghaeiassist: I. Moradi
3'
16'
🔁M. A. Rezaeiout: M. Kia
🔁I. Moradiout: A. Maleki
41'
45+6'
⚽A. Rostami (pen)
⚽A. Farsi
52'
🔁A. Farsiout: F. Yousefi
57'
🔁M. Ghanbariout: H. Shanani
58'
🔁A. Teymouriout: A. M. Khanzadi
89'
🔁H. Hajiaghaeiout: M. Amiri
89'

Line-ups

Kheybar Khorramabad
  • 12M. Dinarvand
  • 17H. Hajiaghaei
  • 15M. Mohebi
  • 3E. Ghahremani
  • 4S. Pasandideh
  • 88E. Babaei
  • 20A. Teymouri
  • 19M. Ghanbari
  • 22S. D. Baghaki
  • 76A. Farsi
  • 10I. Moradi
Substitutes
  • 1E. Moradian
  • 6T. Shariati
  • 7H. Taherkhani
  • 8F. Yousefi
  • 11H. Shanani
  • 14S. Khadempour
  • 23A. M. Khanzadi
  • 70H. Zarouni
  • 78M. Amiri
Esteghlal Khuzestan
  • 78M. A. Rezaei
  • 75F. Jafari
  • 4A. Abbasi
  • 66M. Mehdizadeh
  • 77M. Ahmadi
  • S. Bazgir
  • 8H. Bouhamdan
  • 7A. Rostami
  • 12E. Sazegari
  • 34J. Zergani
  • 88M. Zavari
Substitutes
  • 1M. Kia
  • 5M. Soltanimehr
  • 6M. Sharifi
  • 13M. Mousavi
  • 15A. Karami
  • 16A. Sharafi
  • 21S. Simanpour
  • 23A. Farhadi
  • 40M. Haghdoost

Form going into Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

Kheybar Khorramabad

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • D0-0Persepolis FC14 October 2026

Esteghlal Khuzestan

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L0-3away to Gol Gohar8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Kheybar Khorramabad123541415-114
13Esteghlal Khuzestan12255916-711

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

  • 9 December 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–1 Kheybar KhorramabadPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 1 May 2025Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 Kheybar KhorramabadPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 19 December 2024Kheybar Khorramabad 1–0 Esteghlal KhuzestanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 25 February 2023Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 Kheybar KhorramabadAzadegan League
  • 28 September 2022Kheybar Khorramabad 1–1 Esteghlal KhuzestanAzadegan League
  • 5 March 2022Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 Kheybar KhorramabadAzadegan League

The result against the call

Kheybar Khorramabad beat Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Kheybar Khorramabad at 57%. The goals: H. Hajiaghaei 3' for Kheybar Khorramabad, A. Rostami (penalty) 45+6' for Esteghlal Khuzestan, A. Farsi 52' for Kheybar Khorramabad.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kheybar Khorramabad a 10.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 15.5% after a draw, 36.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 10 points lower than before the match.

For Esteghlal Khuzestan the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 57.0% going in: 23.9% after a win, 48.5% after a draw, 69.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.1%, 12.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kheybar Khorramabad v Esteghlal Khuzestan has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 57% / 23% / 20%: the biggest move is Kheybar Khorramabad's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Kheybar Khorramabad win57%▲ +9
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Esteghlal Khuzestan win20%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.