18 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica Quito Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha, Guayaquil
Referee: Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Barcelona SC 1-1 Universidad Catolica Quito.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Barcelona SC, 28% draw, 29% Universidad Catolica Quito — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Barcelona SC at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Barcelona SC0%Draw5%Universidad Catolica Quito95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
•Mauro Díaz
19'
Gregori Anangonó
Tomás Rodríguez
19'
Jonathan Perlaza
62'
65'
⚽Azarias Londono
71'
Azarias Londono
Johan Garcia
72'
🔁Darío Benedettoout: Luis Cano
73'
🔁Johan Garciaout: Jefferson Intriago
73'
🔁Damián Díazout: Sergio Díaz
80'
81'
🔁Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Peredaout: Jonnathan Mina
🔁Jefferson Wilaout: Erick Mendoza
81'
81'
🔁Mauro Díazout: Carlos Medina
Matias Gonzalo Lugo
86'
🔁Jonathan Perlazaout: Byron Castillo
87'
90+1'
🔁Eddy Mejiaout: Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo
90+1'
🔁José Fajardoout: Byron Palacios
⚽Erick Mendoza
90+5'

Match stats — Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica Quito

53%Possession47%
1Shots3
1On target1
4Corners2
0.55xG0.28

Goals against chances

Barcelona SC1 from 0.55 xGabout what the chances were worth
Universidad Catolica Quito1 from 0.28 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Barcelona SC 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ContrerasG
  • 18B. CarabalíD
  • 33J. BáezD
  • 4G. VallecillaD
  • 15J. PerlazaD
  • 32M. LugoM
  • 50J. GarcíaM
  • 11T. RodríguezM
  • 10D. DíazM
  • 51Jefferson WilaM
  • 9D. BenedettoF
Substitutes
  • 21H. VillalbaF
  • 13José Luis AnguloG
  • 16L. CanoF
  • 26B. CastilloD
  • 8S. DíazF
  • 80Jandry GomezM
  • 35J. IntriagoM
  • 23T. MartínezM
  • 20C. MedinaF
Coach: Pablo Trobbiani
Universidad Catolica Quito 4-4-2
  • 12J. LaraG
  • 29G. AnangonóD
  • 33L. CangáD
  • 3Jose GarcíaD
  • 30E. MejíaD
  • 9A. LondoñoM
  • 8D. ClavijoM
  • 5J. CacciabueM
  • 32M. AlonsoM
  • 7J. FajardoF
  • 28M. DíazF
Substitutes
  • 1Lucas Cueva GordilloG
  • 10F. MartínezM
  • 37C. MedinaD
  • 15L. MorenoD
  • 24Darwin Carlos Nazareno ArroyoD
  • 18B. PalaciosF
  • 23Alex Andrés Rodríguez ReascosM
  • 19M. SevillanoM
  • 17R. TroyaM
Coach: D. Martínez

Form going into Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica Quito

Barcelona SC

Liga Pro

  • L1-2away to LDU de Quito11 October 2026

Universidad Catolica Quito

Liga Pro

  • L0-1Macara11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Barcelona SC351213103932+749
3Universidad Catolica Quito361412105635+2154

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica Quito

  • 22 July 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 2–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
  • 22 March 2026Barcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 7 December 2025Barcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 2 November 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 1–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
  • 31 August 2025Barcelona SC 2–3 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 11 May 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 2–2 Barcelona SCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Barcelona SC and Universidad Catolica Quito

Barcelona SC

GoalsAssists

  • D. Benedetto92

Universidad Catolica Quito

GoalsAssists

  • J. Fajardo133
  • M. Alonso84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Barcelona SC and Universidad Catolica Quito drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Barcelona SC at 43% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Azarias Londono 65' for Universidad Catolica Quito, Erick Mendoza 90+5' for Barcelona SC. On expected goals it finished 0.55–0.28.

How the call on Barcelona SC v Universidad Catolica Quito has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Barcelona SC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Barcelona SC win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Universidad Catolica Quito win29%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.