23 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Süper Lig prediction & result

Papara Park, Trabzon
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Trabzonspor 2-1 Başakşehir.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Trabzonspor, 23% draw, 53% Başakşehir — fair odds of 4.17, 4.35 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Başakşehir at 53% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Trabzonspor94%Draw6%Başakşehir0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Salah
8'
19'
⚽E. Shomurodov (pen)
22'
O. Kemen
39'
B. Yildirim
46'
🔁B. Yildirimout: O. Ergun
⚽M. Salahassist: E. Muci
48'
58'
🔁A. Fayzullaevout: D. Selke
58'
🔁J. Kaluzinskiout: I. Brnic
61'
D. Selke
🔁E. Muciout: C. Ozkacar
70'
🔁A. Simsirout: N. Saviolo
70'
70'
🔁O. Sahinerout: M. Karbownik
M. Salah
79'
79'
🔁A. Skov Olsenout: U. Bozok
🔁R. Malinovskyiout: B. Bouchouari
81'
C. Nwaiwu
83'
🔁P. Onuachuout: O. Tufan
87'
89'
O. Ergun
S. Savic
89'
F. Tekke
90+3'
•M. Salah
90+4'

Match stats — Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir

52%Possession48%
19Shots12
8On target4
5Corners1
2.04xG1.81

Goals against chances

Trabzonspor2 from 2.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
Başakşehir1 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Trabzonspor 4-4-1-1
  • 24A. OnanaG
  • 55S. Lopes CabralD
  • 27C. NwaiwuD
  • 15S. SavicD
  • 19M. EskihellacD
  • 7E. MuciM
  • 57M. KabasakalM
  • 17R. MalinovskyiM
  • 58A. SimsirM
  • 10M. SalahF
  • 30P. OnuachuF
Substitutes
  • 1A. YildirimG
  • 4S. AkaydinD
  • 39C. OzkacarD
  • 20W. PinaD
  • 11O. TufanM
  • 8B. BouchouariM
  • 14U. NayirF
  • 77M. MimarogluF
  • 70N. SavioloF
Coach: Fatih Tekke
Başakşehir 4-2-3-1
  • 16M. SengezerG
  • 42O. SahinerD
  • 23E. BayramD
  • 3J. OpokuD
  • 21C. OperiD
  • 8O. KemenM
  • 18J. KaluzinskiM
  • 70A. Skov OlsenM
  • 14E. ShomurodovM
  • 11A. FayzullaevM
  • 91B. YildirimF
Substitutes
  • 98D. Dilmen
  • 33M. KarbownikD
  • 15H. GurelerD
  • 27O. BaD
  • 19B. OzcanM
  • 4O. ErgunM
  • 20U. GunesM
  • 9D. SelkeF
  • 77I. BrnicF
Coach: Nuri Sahin

Form going into Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir

Trabzonspor

  • D1-1away to Kasımpaşa15 August 2026

Başakşehir

  • W2-0Kocaelispor16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Trabzonspor521295+47
14Başakşehir5113611-54

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir

  • 23 August 2026Trabzonspor 2–1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 19 April 2026Trabzonspor 1–1 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
  • 3 March 2026Başakşehir 2–4 TrabzonsporTürkiye Kupası
  • 24 November 2025Başakşehir 3–4 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 15 March 2025Başakşehir 0–3 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 19 October 2024Trabzonspor 1–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Trabzonspor and Başakşehir

Trabzonspor

  • Mohamed Salah4 goals1 assists

Başakşehir

  • E. Shomurodov4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.