23 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş Süper Lig prediction & result

Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanya
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Alanyaspor, 25% draw, 44% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Beşiktaş at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alanyaspor95%Draw5%Beşiktaş0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
🔁S. Ozcanout: J. Olaitan
57'
🔁R. Yilmazout: K. Ouattara
57'
🔁Oh Hyeon-Gyuout: D. Vlahovic
🔁I. Kayaout: E. Keskin
65'
🔁Hwang Ui-Joout: M. Elia
65'
🔁A. Usluogluout: O. Ben Ali
65'
66'
🔁L. Trossardout: I. Fakili
⚽N. Limaassist: F. Hadergjonaj
73'
82'
🔁T. Bulutout: M. Murillo
🔁Ruanout: Y. Ozdemir
86'
🔁N. Limaout: B. Ozyurt
90+1'

Match stats — Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş

35%Possession65%
9Shots14
3On target6
7Corners7
0.41xG0.7

Goals against chances

Alanyaspor1 from 0.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Beşiktaş0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alanyaspor 3-4-3
  • 48Paulo VictorG
  • 3N. LimaD
  • 5F. AlitiD
  • 50U. AkdagD
  • 94F. HadergjonajM
  • 42G. MakoutaM
  • 55B. GezekM
  • 11RuanM
  • 16Hwang Ui-JoF
  • 17A. UsluogluF
  • 7I. KayaF
Substitutes
  • 23M. BayramG
  • 4B. OzyurtD
  • 20F. AksoyD
  • 10I. HagiM
  • 8E. KeskinM
  • 26I. CelikM
  • 88Y. OzdemirM
  • 19BikoueF
  • 12M. EliaF
Coach: Joao Pereira
Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. NubelG
  • 22T. BulutD
  • 12E. AgbadouD
  • 53E. TopcuD
  • 33R. YilmazD
  • 6S. OzcanM
  • 18V. CernyM
  • 4W. NdidiM
  • 10O. KokcuM
  • 19L. TrossardM
  • 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
Substitutes
  • 80D. AlemdarG
  • 62M. MurilloD
  • 35T. DjaloD
  • 11K. OuattaraD
  • 15J. OlaitanM
  • 8K. Kayra YilmazM
  • 7M. RashicaM
  • 28D. VlahovicF
  • 90S. KilicsoyF
Coach: Vincenzo Italiano

Form going into Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş

Alanyaspor

  • D1-1away to Gaziantep FK15 August 2026

Beşiktaş

  • W1-0Eyüpspor16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Alanyaspor522165+18
2Beşiktaş5401124+812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş

  • 23 August 2026Alanyaspor 1–0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
  • 23 April 2026Beşiktaş 3–0 AlanyasporTürkiye Kupası
  • 8 February 2026Beşiktaş 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
  • 31 August 2025Alanyaspor 2–0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
  • 18 May 2025Alanyaspor 1–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
  • 21 December 2024Beşiktaş 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş

Alanyaspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Beşiktaş

  • D. Vlahović4 goals
  • V. Černý2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.