23 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Göztepe vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Süper Lig prediction & result

Izmir
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Göztepe 0-1 Gençlerbirliği S.K..

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Göztepe, 20% draw, 43% Gençlerbirliği S.K. — fair odds of 2.70, 5.00 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Göztepe0%Draw6%Gençlerbirliği S.K.94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alex Matos
43'
🔁Allan Godoiout: E. Yildirim
45+3'
🔁A. Matosout: Rhaldney
46'
🔁S. Armstrongout: Juan
46'
🔁E. Bekirogluout: Janderson
46'
48'
Dimitris Goutas
⚽Malcom Bokele (pen)
50'
51'
⚽S. Koitaassist: O. Ulgun
61'
🔁T. Gouveiaout: C. Niasse
🔁O. Bayrakout: R. Akonnor
64'
72'
🔁A. Dursunout: F. Uzum
72'
🔁O. Ulgunout: S. Ucan
79'
Cheikh Niasse
85'
🔁S. Koitaout: M. Baltaci

Match stats — Göztepe vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.

51%Possession49%
16Shots10
6On target2
7Corners5
2xG1.52

Goals against chances

Göztepe0 from 2.00 xGless than the chances were worth
Gençlerbirliği S.K.1 from 1.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Göztepe 3-4-1-2
  • 25L. GugeshashviliG
  • 4T. AltikardesD
  • 3Allan GodoiD
  • 26M. BokeleD
  • 2A. KurtulanM
  • 6A. MatosM
  • 20N. MiroshiM
  • 16O. BayrakM
  • 10E. BekirogluF
  • 7Andre HenriqueF
  • 22S. ArmstrongF
Substitutes
  • 1A. OzcimenG
  • 33S. OzturkG
  • 13E. YildirimD
  • 5RhaldneyM
  • 12R. Akonnor
  • 9JuanF
  • 17G. BayrakdarF
  • 39JandersonF
  • 14B. BokeF
Coach: Stanimir Stoilov
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 4-1-4-1
  • 70I. EgribayatG
  • 13P. PereiraD
  • 6D. GoutasD
  • 4Z. ZuzekD
  • 77A. DursunD
  • 42O. DiabateM
  • 14A. TraoreM
  • 35O. UlgunM
  • 10F. TongyaM
  • 7T. GouveiaM
  • 20S. KoitaF
Substitutes
  • 23G. AkkanG
  • 90M. BaltaciD
  • 2Thalisson KelvenD
  • 88F. UzumD
  • 3H. AydarD
  • 8E. KemalogluM
  • 48S. UcanM
  • 19C. NiasseM
  • 45P. MartorF
Coach: Ozcan Bizati

Form going into Göztepe vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Göztepe

  • D3-3away to Samsunspor17 August 2026

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

  • W2-1Fenerbahçe15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Göztepe5023913-42
12Gençlerbirliği S.K.521259-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Göztepe vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.

  • 23 August 2026Göztepe 0–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
  • 4 April 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–2 GöztepeSüper Lig
  • 1 November 2025Göztepe 1–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
  • 28 April 2024Göztepe 2–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
  • 10 December 2023Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–3 Göztepe1. Lig
  • 5 February 2023Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–0 Göztepe1. Lig

Leading scorers: Göztepe and Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Göztepe

  • Juan4 goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.