27 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Koper vs Maribor 1. SNL prediction & result

Bonifika, Koper
Referee: R. Obrenovic
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Koper 4-0 Maribor.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Koper, 28% draw, 29% Maribor — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Koper at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Koper99%Draw1%Maribor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
•N. Osterc
36'
C. Goncalves
F. Backulja
41'
45+2'
A. Jug
45+4'
🔁Z. Repasout: T. Handanovic
⚽J. Ilicic
45+6'
🔁D. Pejicicout: F. Tomek
46'
46'
🔁L. Zahovicout: Z. Jevsenak
⚽B. Irabor
56'
G. Agyemang
58'
59'
🔁N. Ostercout: B. Feta
59'
🔁C. Goncalvesout: N. Viher
⚽F. Tomek
67'
🔁J. Ilicicout: C. Diakite
68'
🔁K. Manseriout: B. Ndiaye
74'
74'
🔁T. Cipotout: A. Reghba
F. Backulja
76'
🔁B. Iraborout: L. Gucek
80'
🔁I. Matondoout: L. Oluwaseun
80'
⚽B. Ndiayeassist: C. Diakite
89'

Form going into Koper vs Maribor

Koper

1. SNL

  • W5-0Brinje-Grosuplje18 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Radomlje10 October 2026

Maribor

1. SNL

  • D0-0Celje18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Koper158522613+1329
2Maribor156632216+624

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Koper vs Maribor

  • 9 August 2026Maribor 2–0 Koper1. SNL
  • 14 April 2026Koper 3–1 Maribor1. SNL
  • 8 February 2026Maribor 2–0 Koper1. SNL
  • 19 October 2025Koper 1–0 Maribor1. SNL
  • 3 August 2025Maribor 2–2 Koper1. SNL
  • 18 May 2025Koper 1–1 Maribor1. SNL

The result against the call

Koper beat Maribor 4–0. The model had made a win for Koper its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Ilicic 45+6' for Koper, B. Irabor 56' for Koper, F. Tomek 67' for Koper, B. Ndiaye 89' for Koper. Sent off: A. Jug (Maribor) 45+2', F. Backulja (Koper) 76'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Koper a 23.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 28.8% after a win, 21.5% after a draw, 15.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.8%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

For Maribor the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 40.2% going in: 50.0% after a win, 40.3% after a draw, 34.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.0%, 6.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Koper v Maribor has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Koper's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Koper win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Maribor win29%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.