Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje 1. SNL prediction & result
Final score: Olimpija Ljubljana 1-1 Celje.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Olimpija Ljubljana, 30% draw, 34% Celje — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Olimpija Ljubljana at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 26M. Vidovsek
- 3J. Urbancic
- 9D. Kojic
- 10D. Mitrovski
- 14K. Bendra
- 15M. Ristic
- 19I. Tuci
- 30J. Gorenc
- 34A. Doffo
- 90R. Miskovic
- 99A. Marin
- 22D. Pintol
- 36P. Jeran
- 6L. Perea
- 8B. Lourenco
- 11F. Rose
- 18M. Brest
- 24A. Tamm
- 28Diga
- 33J. Govea
- 1Z. Leban
- 25V. Tusha
- 77M. Ivansek
- 6A. Tutyskinas
- 10S. Seslar
- 8M. Kvesic
- 9B. Kramer
- 7B. Verbic
- 11M. Avdyli
- 44L. Bejger
- 19M. Zabukovnik
- 21S. Sluga
- 20A. Dionkou
- 13P. Daniel
- 4D. Hrka
- 15Z. Zuzek
- 47A. Kucys
- 32T. Letonja
- 27I. Calusic
- 33L. Koutris
Form going into Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje
Olimpija Ljubljana
1. SNL
- W1-0away to Aluminij16 October 2026
- D3-3Mura10 October 2026
Celje
1. SNL
- D0-0away to Maribor18 October 2026
- W1-0Aluminij10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 23 |
| 3 | Celje | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje
- 8 August 2026Celje 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 15 April 2026Celje 2–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 8 February 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 3–1 Celje1. SNL
- 4 December 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 CeljeCup
- 18 October 2025Celje 0–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 3 August 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 0–5 Celje1. SNL
The result against the call
Olimpija Ljubljana and Celje drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Olimpija Ljubljana at 36% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Marin 13' for Olimpija Ljubljana, S. Seslar (penalty) 38' for Celje.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Olimpija Ljubljana a 51.3% chance to finish in the top four: 59.2% after a win, 49.5% after a draw, 44.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 49.5%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
For Celje the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 84.1% going in: 89.5% after a win, 84.2% after a draw, 79.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 84.2%.
Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.