28 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Nafta vs Aluminij 1. SNL prediction & result

Lendava
Referee: D. Novarlic
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Nafta 0-0 Aluminij.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Nafta, 28% draw, 25% Aluminij — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nafta at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nafta4%Draw93%Aluminij3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
A. Bekavac
63'
D. Zajsek
A. Dragoner
72'
77'
🔁P. Petriskoout: M. Mladenovic
77'
🔁B. Osujiout: M. Bajraj
77'
🔁R. Ramsakout: A. Bloudek
🔁M. Vidnyanszkyout: M. Vallejo
82'
82'
🔁M. Vrbanecout: I. Svrznjak
🔁S. Omraniout: L. Pihler
86'
🔁A. Marosaout: D. Bobson
86'
88'
R. Schaubach
M. Vallejo
90+2'

Line-ups

Nafta
  • 1L. Erjavsek
  • 2R. Pirtovsek
  • 98A. Dragoner
  • 20A. Ferreira
  • 33L. Poredos
  • 17A. Marosa
  • 21S. Omrani
  • 18A. Pihler
  • 41K. Lavrencic
  • 7J. Zorica
  • 30M. Vidnyanszky
Substitutes
  • 89E. Nemeth
  • 8M. Ogwuche
  • 99A. Micic
  • 90U. Jamiu
  • 23L. Kambic
  • 10L. Pihler
  • 16D. Bobson
  • 19A. Sarr
  • 11A. Jasaragic
Coach: Gonzalo Escudero
Aluminij
  • 31F. Raduha
  • 32V. Tezak
  • 4R. Schaubach
  • 3D. Zajsek
  • 12A. Bekavac
  • 80H. Sorensen
  • 14T. Jagic
  • 44P. Petrisko
  • 13M. Vrbanec
  • 11B. Osuji
  • 10R. Ramsak
Substitutes
  • 1A. Mrezar
  • 66L. Tomazic
  • 18S. Rogina
  • 9A. Bloudek
  • 25M. Bajraj
  • 7M. Mladenovic
  • 20I. Svrznjak
  • 27M. Blazic
  • 24T. Modric
Coach: Jure Arsic

Form going into Nafta vs Aluminij

Nafta

1. SNL

  • D0-0away to Mura17 October 2026
  • W1-0Bravo11 October 2026

Aluminij

1. SNL

  • L0-1Olimpija Ljubljana16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Celje10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Nafta155461921-219
7Aluminij154562114+717

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nafta vs Aluminij

  • 9 August 2026Aluminij 1–1 Nafta1. SNL
  • 17 March 2023Aluminij 1–1 Nafta2. SNL
  • 4 September 2022Nafta 1–3 Aluminij2. SNL
  • 30 June 2021Aluminij 2–3 NaftaFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Nafta and Aluminij drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Nafta at 47% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nafta a 27.1% chance to finish in the top four: 30.8% after a win, 25.2% after a draw, 21.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.2%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

For Aluminij the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 9.7% going in: 14.2% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 6.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.8%.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.