Barnet vs York League Two prediction & result
Final score: Barnet 3-1 York.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Barnet, 25% draw, 32% York — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Barnet at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Barnet vs York
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13M. CoxG
- 5A. SeniorD
- 4D. CollingeD
- 25N. TavaresD
- 3R. Crichlow-NobleD
- 11I. KanuM
- 22O. GallagherM
- 14B. ComleyM
- 8C. LakinM
- 9J. MaskellF
- 20K. TshimangaF
- 17D. AjayiF
- 36Anthony HaralambousG
- 7T. KnowlesF
- 10N. OfoborhM
- 23J. ReevesM
- 18K. SmithD
- 6Z. WilliamsD
- 1Alfie Shane McNallyG
- 2R. FallowfieldD
- 5Z. JohnsonD
- 3M. KitchingD
- 23J. FelixM
- 21H. BoatengM
- 8A. HuntM
- 12H. BoyesM
- 28O. BanksM
- 7J. GreyM
- 10O. PearceF
- 16A. ReadM
- 24M. WilliamsD
- 11F. MaguireM
- 15J. KingD
- 31G. Sykes-KenworthyG
- 9J. StonesF
- 30A. NewbyM
Form going into Barnet vs York
Barnet
League Two
- D1-1Oldham24 October 2026
- L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026
York
League Two
- W2-0Port Vale24 October 2026
- D1-1Accrington Stanley20 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 26 |
| 4 | York | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Barnet vs York
- 18 February 2025Barnet 3–1 YorkNational League
- 22 October 2024York 3–1 BarnetNational League
- 24 February 2024Barnet 2–0 YorkNational League
- 26 September 2023York 2–4 BarnetNational League
- 3 April 2023York 1–0 BarnetNational League
Leading scorers: Barnet and York
Barnet
GoalsAssists
- K. Tshimanga104
- C. Lakin63
York
GoalsAssists
- O. Pearce74
- A. Newby61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Barnet beat York 3–1. The model had made a win for Barnet its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Arthur Read 37' for York, Kabongo Tshimanga 39' for Barnet, Jake Reeves 80' for Barnet, A. McNally (own goal) 87' for Barnet. Sent off: Hiram Boateng (York) 52', Scott Lindsey (York) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 1.58–0.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Barnet a 58.3% chance to finish in the top three: 63.3% after a win, 56.3% after a draw, 52.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.3%, 5 points higher than before the match.
For York the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 42.6% going in: 49.7% after a win, 43.1% after a draw, 37.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.9%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.