Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline Championship prediction & result
Final score: Stenhousemuir 0-1 Dunfermline.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Stenhousemuir, 30% draw, 27% Dunfermline — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Stenhousemuir at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1D. Jamieson
- 24L. Grant
- 4G. Buchanan
- 19S. Bright
- 15D. Carrick
- 17M. Anderson
- 39M. Gillies
- 28C. Penman
- 7E. O'Reilly
- 20G. Stevenson
- 11L. O'Donnell
- 34R. Hemfrey
- 5S. Young
- 8F. Robson
- 10A. Shinnie
- 21L. Hodgkiss
- 22H. Kargbo
- 26N. Jamieson
- 36L. Lloyd
- 37O. MacIntyre
- 1A. Oxborough
- 24D. Lobban
- 25A. Donnelly
- 6N. Abdulai
- 47R. Fraser
- 19A. Oyirwoth
- 14A. Amade
- 33J. Cooper
- 16R. MacLeod
- 99O. Adams
- 26A. Tod
- 12M. Dibaga
- 3J. Tod
- 8C. Gilmour
- 10O. Shaw
- 11S. Kearney
- 17O. Thomas
- 18K. Corbally
- 20C. Kane
- 22K. Bray
Form going into Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline
Stenhousemuir
Championship
- L0-3away to Partick24 October 2026
Dunfermline
Championship
- W1-0away to Queen's Park24 October 2026
- D1-1Partick20 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 26 |
| 4 | Dunfermline | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline
- 18 January 2025Dunfermline 3–0 StenhousemuirFA Cup
- 24 July 2021Dunfermline 4–1 StenhousemuirLeague Cup
- 5 March 2016Dunfermline 5–0 StenhousemuirLeague One
- 6 February 2016Stenhousemuir 0–3 DunfermlineLeague One
- 19 December 2015Dunfermline 1–0 StenhousemuirLeague One
- 19 September 2015Stenhousemuir 0–5 DunfermlineLeague One
The result against the call
Dunfermline won 1–0 at Stenhousemuir. The model had leaned towards a win for Stenhousemuir at 43% and given a win for Dunfermline 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: R. MacLeod 76' for Dunfermline.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stenhousemuir a 82.1% chance to finish in the top four: 86.7% after a win, 81.4% after a draw, 76.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.9%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.
For Dunfermline the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 51.8% going in: 60.4% after a win, 50.8% after a draw, 47.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.4%, 8.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.