9 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga Eliteserien prediction & result

Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund
Referee: Marius Lien
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Kristiansund BK 1-0 Valerenga.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Kristiansund BK, 25% draw, 43% Valerenga — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Valerenga at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kristiansund BK95%Draw5%Valerenga0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Marius Elvius
27'
40'
🔁Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeterout: Håvard Nielsen
🔁John Kitolanoout: Dan Peter Ulvestad
45'
52'
Dennis Gjengaar
🔁Sander Svendsenout: Tobias Hammer Svendsen
60'
🔁Syver Skeideout: Wilfred George Igor
60'
62'
🔁Kevin Ngoyi Tshiembeout: Sebastian Jarl
62'
🔁Vegar Eggen Hedenstadout: Ghayas Zahid
🔁Zymer Bytyqiout: Adrian Kurd Rønning
70'
Gustav Ørsøe Christensen
71'
Heine Gikling Bruseth
73'
78'
🔁Aaron Kiil Olsenout: Odin Thiago Holm
🔁Heine Gikling Brusethout: Julius Mar Juliusson
80'
83'
Fidel Brice Ambina
Leander Alvheim
89'
Tobias Hammer Svendsen
90+5'

Match stats — Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga

56%Possession44%
18Shots13
6On target2
4Corners3
1.58xG0.97

Goals against chances

Kristiansund BK1 from 1.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Valerenga0 from 0.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kristiansund BK 4-2-3-1
  • 12A. SætherG
  • 59M. ElviusD
  • 6J. IsaksenD
  • 17M. WilliamsenD
  • 25J. KitolanoD
  • 14S. SkeideM
  • 10H. BrusethM
  • 24G. ChristensenM
  • 7S. SvendsenM
  • 11Z. BytyqiM
  • 19L. AlvheimF
Substitutes
  • 2A. BørsetD
  • 22H. HaugenD
  • 20W. IgorM
  • 8E. IsufiM
  • 4J. JúlíussonD
  • 1M. LansingG
  • 27A. RønningF
  • 23T. SvendsenM
  • 5D. UlvestadD
Coach: A. Skiri
Valerenga 4-4-2
  • 1O. HedvallG
  • 6V. HedenstadD
  • 4A. Kiil OlsenD
  • 5K. TshiembeD
  • 26D. GjengaarD
  • 24P. StrandM
  • 29F. AmbinaM
  • 10C. LangeM
  • 77L. HarenM
  • 17M. GrundetjernF
  • 90O. SaeterF
Substitutes
  • 13S. LønningG
  • 7H. NielsenF
  • 3H. SjåtilD
  • 28M. WestergaardM
  • 11G. ZahidM
  • 15O. HolmM
  • 55S. JarlD
  • 59Magnus BjørnstadF
  • 39Gabriel Oddvar OpsahlM
Coach: J. Moesgaard

Form going into Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga

Kristiansund BK

Eliteserien

  • W4-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF1 November 2026
  • D2-2KFUM Oslo25 October 2026
  • L1-4Aalesund17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Bodo/Glimt10 October 2026

Valerenga

Eliteserien

  • W4-0Tromso1 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Bodo/Glimt24 October 2026
  • W3-1Brann18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to KFUM Oslo12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Kristiansund BK scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Kristiansund BK conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Kristiansund BK had three goals or more.
  • Valerenga scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Valerenga won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Valerenga had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Kristiansund BK2675143051-2126
8Valerenga2695124347-432

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga

  • 29 May 2026Valerenga 3–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 22 November 2025Valerenga 3–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 27 April 2025Kristiansund BK 0–2 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 10 December 2023Valerenga 0–2 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 6 December 2023Kristiansund BK 0–2 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 11 September 2022Kristiansund BK 3–2 ValerengaEliteserien

Leading scorers: Kristiansund BK and Valerenga

Kristiansund BK

GoalsAssists

  • L. Alvheim120

Valerenga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Haren112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kristiansund BK beat Valerenga 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Valerenga at 43% and given a win for Kristiansund BK 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Marius Elvius 27' for Kristiansund BK. On expected goals it finished 1.58–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kristiansund BK a 81.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 67.6% after a win, 86.4% after a draw, 90.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.6%, 14.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.