Universitario vs UCV Moquegua Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Universitario 2-2 UCV Moquegua.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% Universitario, 21% draw, 11% UCV Moquegua — fair odds of 1.47, 4.76 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primera División (Peru) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Universitario at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universitario vs UCV Moquegua
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25M. VargasG
- 2C. FaraD
- 3W. RiverosD
- 4A. SantamaríaD
- 24A. PoloM
- 19É. FloresM
- 10H. CalcaterraM
- 17J. ConchaM
- 33C. IngaM
- 18G. LapadulaF
- 20A. ValeraF
- 29A. CorzoD
- 15J. RequenaM
- 77B. ReynaF
- 11J. RiveraF
- 1D. RomeroG
- 23J. MurrugarraM
- 70J. GutiérrezD
- 8H. FértoliM
- 39P. QuispeM
- 1C. GradosG
- 4A. PerlecheD
- 13J. LojasD
- 3C. EncisoD
- 22E. MontenegroD
- 17Y. ZapataD
- 7E. LastreM
- 8C. MejíaM
- 25R. ChipaoM
- 20D. RamírezM
- 90J. CollazosF
- 10N. ChávezM
- 16Allonso Alberto Dávila CárdenasF
- 29R. FigueroaG
- 30J. GrandaD
- 24A. LecarosF
- 88Y. LópezD
- 14Claudio Guillermo Ramírez LlamoccaM
- 11B. AnguloF
- 35E. SantillánM
Form going into Universitario vs UCV Moquegua
Universitario
Primera División
- D2-2Sport Boys5 November 2026
- W3-1away to Atletico Grau1 November 2026
- W3-0Juan Pablo II College25 October 2026
- W4-1away to Alianza Atletico18 October 2026
UCV Moquegua
Primera División
- D0-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas1 November 2026
- L0-2away to ADT28 October 2026
- L0-1Alianza Lima25 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Cajamarca18 October 2026
What these results say
- Universitario went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Universitario scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Universitario had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 4 matches for UCV Moquegua had two goals or fewer.
- UCV Moquegua failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- UCV Moquegua failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universitario | 33 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 59 | 39 | +20 | 61 |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 33 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitario vs UCV Moquegua
- 23 May 2026UCV Moquegua 0–0 UniversitarioPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universitario and UCV Moquegua
Universitario
GoalsAssists
- A. Valera182
- G. Lapadula94
UCV Moquegua
GoalsAssists
- E. Lastre85
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Universitario and UCV Moquegua drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Universitario at 68% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: William Riveros 36' for Universitario, Juan Diego Lojas 43' for UCV Moquegua, Gianluca Lapadula (penalty) 59' for Universitario, Brayan Angulo (penalty) 78' for UCV Moquegua. On expected goals it finished 2.19–1.20.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universitario a 98.1% chance to finish in the top two: 100.0% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 77.2% after a defeat. The draw was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
For UCV Moquegua the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 67.5% going in: 9.7% after a win, 59.3% after a draw, 75.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 59.3%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Universitario v UCV Moquegua has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 65% / 22% / 13% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 68% / 21% / 11%: the biggest move is Universitario's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Universitario win68%▲ +3
- Draw21%▼ −1
- UCV Moquegua win11%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.