8 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Sandefjord vs Molde Eliteserien prediction & result

Jotun Arena, Sandefjord
Referee: Mohammad Usman Aslam
Full time5 – 5

Final score: Sandefjord 5-5 Molde.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Sandefjord, 26% draw, 40% Molde — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Molde at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Evangelos Patoulidis
1'
⚽Vetle Walle Egeliassist: Evangelos Patoulidis
9'
19'
⚽Caleb Sery
⚽Evangelos Patoulidis
25'
28'
⚽Kristian Lonebuassist: Samukele Kabini
35'
⚽Kristian Lonebuassist: Martin Linnes
45+1'
Daniel Daga
45+3'
⚽Gustav Højbjerg (OG)
Jakob Maslo Dunsby
67'
67'
🔁Martin Linnesout: Halldor Stenevik
⚽Evangelos Patoulidisassist: Vetle Walle Egeli
69'
🔁Jakob Maslo Dunsbyout: Bendik Slotfeldt Berntsen
75'
🔁Sander Risan Mörkout: Jakob Vester Nielsen
75'
77'
Halldor Stenevik
77'
🔁Daniel Dagaout: Mats Møller Dæhli
77'
🔁Sander Hestetun Kilenout: Oskar Spiten Nysaeter
⚽Bendik Slotfeldt Berntsenassist: Evangelos Patoulidis
84'
88'
🔁Caleb Seryout: Trent Kone-Doherty
88'
🔁Kristian Lonebuout: Jalal Abdullai
89'
⚽Sondre Granaasassist: Mats Møller Dæhli
🔁Oscar Forsmo Kapskarmoout: Sebastian Holm Mathisen
90+4'
🔁Evangelos Patoulidisout: Foster Apetorgbor
90+4'
Fredrik Carson Pedersen
90+9'
🔁Fredrik Carson Pedersenout: Martin Hellan
90+9'

Match stats — Sandefjord vs Molde

32%Possession68%
22Shots26
8On target9
3Corners14
2.25xG3.09

Goals against chances

Sandefjord5 from 2.25 xGmore than the chances were worth
Molde5 from 3.09 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sandefjord 4-3-3
  • 30E. HadayaG
  • 4F. PedersenD
  • 13R. HoltenD
  • 5G. HøjbjergD
  • 3V. EgeliD
  • 14E. PettersenM
  • 8T. BørkeeietM
  • 6S. MørkM
  • 7E. PatoulidisF
  • 9O. KapskarmoF
  • 27J. DunsbyF
Substitutes
  • 17A. FosterF
  • 19Bendik BerntsenF
  • 1A. GrønnebergG
  • 2M. HellanD
  • 16H. KrogelienD
  • 24S. MathisenF
  • 32D. SkaarudF
  • 31H. B. SkrettebergD
  • 37J. VesterM
Coach: Andreas Tegström
Molde 4-2-3-1
  • 12P. LervikG
  • 25M. LinnesD
  • 19E. HauganD
  • 33B. RisaD
  • 26S. KabiniD
  • 23S. GranaasM
  • 30D. DagaM
  • 11C. Zady SeryM
  • 6N. ØdegårdM
  • 16S. KilenM
  • 20K. LonebuF
Substitutes
  • 28V. BenderM
  • 10E. BreivikM
  • 17M. Møller DæhliM
  • 4S. HansenD
  • 24Trent Toure Kone DohertyF
  • 32Mads Eikrem MyklebustG
  • 21O. Spiten-NysæterF
  • 18H. StenevikD
  • 9J. AbdulaiF
Coach: S. Tjelmeland

Form going into Sandefjord vs Molde

Sandefjord

Eliteserien

  • W4-3away to Aalesund31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Start25 October 2026
  • L0-2Lillestrom18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Rosenborg10 October 2026

Molde

Eliteserien

  • L2-3away to Brann1 November 2026
  • W5-1Fredrikstad25 October 2026
  • W6-1Start18 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Lillestrom11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sandefjord conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sandefjord failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Sandefjord had two goals or fewer.
  • Molde scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Molde conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Molde had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Sandefjord2677123139-828
5Molde2613586444+2044

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sandefjord vs Molde

  • 30 May 2026Molde 2–1 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 19 October 2025Molde 1–3 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 6 April 2025Sandefjord 3–0 MoldeEliteserien
  • 19 October 2024Molde 0–1 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 5 May 2024Sandefjord 3–1 MoldeEliteserien
  • 12 August 2023Sandefjord 2–2 MoldeEliteserien

Leading scorers: Sandefjord and Molde

Sandefjord

GoalsAssists

  • E. Patoulidis83

Molde

GoalsAssists

  • K. Lonebu152
  • E. Breivik1010
  • E. Hestad82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sandefjord and Molde drew 5–5. The model had leaned towards a win for Molde at 40% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Evangelos Patoulidis 1' for Sandefjord, Vetle Walle Egeli 9' for Sandefjord, Caleb Sery 19' for Molde, Evangelos Patoulidis 25' for Sandefjord, Kristian Lonebu 28' for Molde, Kristian Lonebu 35' for Molde, Gustav Højbjerg (own goal) 45+3' for Molde, Evangelos Patoulidis 69' for Sandefjord, Bendik Slotfeldt Berntsen 84' for Sandefjord, Sondre Granaas 89' for Molde. On expected goals it finished 2.25–3.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sandefjord a 9.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.0% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 14.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.6%.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.