Lanus vs Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Lanus 1-3 Independiente.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Lanus, 25% draw, 17% Independiente — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lanus at 58% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lanus vs Independiente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26Nahuel LosadaG
- 33Tomás GuidaraD
- 24Carlos IzquierdozD
- 35Ronaldo De JesusD
- 6Sasha MarcichD
- 5Felipe Peña BiaforeM
- 30Agustín CardozoM
- 11Eduardo SalvioM
- 23Ramiro CarreraM
- 25Dylan AquinoM
- 20Allan WlkF
- 16Matías SepúlvedaM
- 19Yoshan ValoisF
- 77Lucas BesozziF
- 3Nicolás MorgantiniD
- 38Benjamin AcostaF
- 1Franco PetroliG
- 40Tomás LópezD
- 4Gonzalo PerezD
- 13José CanaleD
- 33Rodrigo ReyG
- 4Santiago AriasD
- 26Kevin LomónacoD
- 35Juan Miguel ArrayagoD
- 22Facundo ZabalaD
- 23Iván MarconeM
- 7Santiago MontielM
- 16Mateo Perez CurciM
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 24Josias PalaisM
- 9Gabriel ÁvalosF
- 32David MartínezM
- 8Maxi MezaF
- 28Maximiliano GutiérrezF
- 19Matías AbaldoF
- 20Facundo CruzM
- 77Santiago MeleG
- 39Ramiro MartinoD
- 40Joshua VelárdezD
- 21Fernando ClosterD
Form going into Lanus vs Independiente
Lanus
- W3-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 August 2026
- L1-2away to Union Santa Fe6 August 2026
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba3 August 2026
- W1-0San Lorenzo26 July 2026
Independiente
- L0-1Platense9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield3 August 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lanus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Independiente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lanus vs Independiente
- 17 August 2026Lanus 1–3 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 February 2026Independiente 2–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 October 2025Independiente 0–2 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 April 2025Lanus 1–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 October 2024Lanus 0–2 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 May 2023Independiente 1–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Lanus and Independiente
Lanus
- D. Aquino6 goals2 assists
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.