Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Velez Sarsfield 1-1 Defensa Y Justicia.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Velez Sarsfield, 20% draw, 33% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 2.13, 5.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velez Sarsfield at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Tomás MarchioriG
- 4Joaquín GarcíaD
- 32Thiago SilveroD
- 16Lisandro MagallánD
- 3Elías GómezD
- 29Rodrigo AliendroM
- 8Lucas RobertoneM
- 11Matías PellegriniM
- 22Manuel LanziniM
- 17Alex VerónM
- 15Dilan GodoyF
- 5Claudio BaezaM
- 39Thiago AguirreF
- 48Luca FelerM
- 37Juan Cruz PolicellaF
- 42Agustin CortezG
- 47Alexis PereyraD
- 18Simon EscobarD
- 19Leo CristaldoD
- 2Emanuel MammanaD
- 1Matías BorgognoG
- 16Ayrton PortilloD
- 29Damián FernándezD
- 21David MartínezD
- 3Fernando RománD
- 15Santiago SosaM
- 8César PérezM
- 27Domingo BlancoM
- 19David BarbonaM
- 24Juan Manuel GutiérrezM
- 9Leandro FernándezF
- 28Valentín LozaD
- 26Jeremías LuccoF
- 30Demian DominguezD
- 22Maximiliano PorcelM
- 7Tomás PérezF
- 36Lautaro AmadeG
- 6Ezequiel BurdinD
- 2Samuel LuceroD
- 44Jonás CabreraM
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia
Velez Sarsfield
- D1-1away to Boca Juniors8 August 2026
- W1-0Independiente3 August 2026
- W3-1away to Talleres Cordoba30 July 2026
- W1-0Instituto Cordoba24 July 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
- W2-1Newell's Old Boys9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata1 August 2026
- W2-1Deportivo Riestra29 July 2026
- D1-1Aldosivi24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 17 |
| 3 | Defensa Y Justicia | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia
- 17 August 2026Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 February 2026Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 August 2024Velez Sarsfield 3–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 March 2023Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 June 2022Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 July 2021Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Defensa Y Justicia
Velez Sarsfield
- M. Lanzini6 goals
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.