14 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Lask Linz vs Liverpool UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Raiffeisen Arena, Linz
Referee: Tobias Stieler
Full time3 – 6

Final score: Lask Linz 3-6 Liverpool.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Lask Linz, 22% draw, 52% Liverpool — fair odds of 3.85, 4.55 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Liverpool at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lask Linz0%Draw1%Liverpool99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 9 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Ronald Araujoassist: Konstantinos Tsimikas
24'
⚽Bradley Barcolaassist: Lewis Koumas
37'
⚽Bradley Barcolaassist: Florian Wirtz
🔁Kasper Jorgensenout: Florian Flecker
45'
51'
⚽Jeremie Frimpongassist: Konstantinos Tsimikas
62'
🔁Jérémy Jacquetout: Virgil van Dijk
62'
🔁Ronald Araujoout: Joe Gomez
🔁Melayro Bogardeout: Robert Ljubicic
62'
⚽Robert Ljubicicassist: Yvan Dibango
63'
66'
⚽Bradley Barcolaassist: Jeremie Frimpong
🔁Samuel Adeniranout: Sasa Kalajdzic
71'
🔁Alessandro Schöpfout: Daniel Elfadli
71'
72'
⚽Lewis Koumasassist: Jeremie Frimpong
73'
🔁Bradley Barcolaout: Víctor Muñoz
⚽Florian Fleckerassist: Yvan Dibango
74'
⚽Florian Fleckerassist: Yvan Dibango
77'
Daniel Elfadli
80'
🔁Christoph Langout: Naël Mamadou Lamine Kane
82'
85'
🔁Treymaurice Nyoniout: Alexis Mac Allister
85'
🔁Rio Ngumohaout: Luke Chambers

Match stats — Lask Linz vs Liverpool

36%Possession64%
12Shots26
4On target9
3Corners11
2.06xG3.36

Goals against chances

Lask Linz3 from 2.06 xGmore than the chances were worth
Liverpool6 from 3.36 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lask Linz 5-4-1
  • 1L. JungwirthG
  • 20K. JørgensenD
  • 4X. MbuyambaD
  • 43AlemãoD
  • 16A. AndradeD
  • 25Y. DibangoD
  • 9K. DaněkM
  • 6M. BogardeM
  • 18A. SchöpfM
  • 27C. LangM
  • 7S. AdeniranF
Substitutes
  • 23Daniel ElfadliM
  • 29F. FleckerF
  • 3M. FreckletonD
  • 11S. KalajdzicF
  • 45N. KaneF
  • 10R. LjubičićM
  • 50Fabian SchillingerG
  • 33T. SchützenauerG
  • 21M. VerhaegheD
Coach: D. Kühbauer
Liverpool 4-2-3-1
  • 1Alisson BeckerG
  • 30J. FrimpongD
  • 33R. AraújoD
  • 5J. JacquetD
  • 21K. TsimikasD
  • 38R. GravenberchM
  • 42T. NyoniM
  • 73R. NgumohaM
  • 7F. WirtzM
  • 29B. BarcolaM
  • 67L. KoumasF
Substitutes
  • 2J. GomezD
  • 6M. KerkezD
  • 10A. Mac AllisterM
  • 25G. MamardashviliG
  • 53J. McConnellM
  • 23Víctor MuñozF
  • 4V. van DijkD
  • 28F. WoodmanG
  • 76J. DannsF
Coach: Andoni Iraola

Form going into Lask Linz vs Liverpool

Lask Linz

UEFA Champions League

  • L0-1away to AEK Athens FC8 September 2026

Liverpool

UEFA Champions League

  • W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Lask Linz4202109+16
8Liverpool43011410+49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Liverpool

  • 30 November 2023Liverpool 4–0 Lask LinzUEFA Europa League
  • 21 September 2023Lask Linz 1–3 LiverpoolUEFA Europa League

The result against the call

Liverpool won 6–3 at Lask Linz. The model had made a win for Liverpool its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ronald Araujo 22' for Liverpool, Bradley Barcola 24' for Liverpool, Bradley Barcola 37' for Liverpool, Jeremie Frimpong 51' for Liverpool, Robert Ljubicic 63' for Lask Linz, Bradley Barcola 66' for Liverpool, Lewis Koumas 72' for Liverpool, Florian Flecker 74' for Lask Linz, Florian Flecker 77' for Lask Linz. On expected goals it finished 2.06–3.36.

How the call on Lask Linz v Liverpool has moved

First published on 30 Sep at 24% / 24% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 26% / 22% / 52%: the biggest move is Lask Linz's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Lask Linz win26%▲ +2
  2. Draw22%▼ −2
  3. Liverpool win52%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.