14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Aspmyra Stadion
Referee: Urs Schnyder
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Borussia Dortmund.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Bodo/Glimt, 26% draw, 42% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Borussia Dortmund at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bodo/Glimt95%Draw5%Borussia Dortmund0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Kouakou Joane Gadou
25'
Fábio Silva
⚽Fredrik Sjovoldassist: Sondre Auklend
52'
60'
🔁Joey Veermanout: Felix Nmecha
60'
🔁Konstantinos Karetsasout: Ethan Nwaneri
60'
🔁Fábio Silvaout: Serhou Guirassy
60'
🔁Samuele Inácioout: Julian Ryerson
77'
🔁Maximilian Beierout: Carney Chukwuemeka
🔁Jens Petter Haugeout: Ola Brynhildsen
78'

Match stats — Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund

48%Possession52%
11Shots9
3On target4
4Corners10
1.2xG0.85

Goals against chances

Bodo/Glimt1 from 1.20 xGabout what the chances were worth
Borussia Dortmund0 from 0.85 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bodo/Glimt 4-4-2
  • 12N. HaikinG
  • 20F. SjøvoldD
  • 6J. GundersenD
  • 5H. AleesamiD
  • 15F. BjørkanD
  • 8S. AuklendM
  • 7P. BergM
  • 19S. FetM
  • 10J. HaugeM
  • 11O. Didrik BlombergF
  • 9A. HelmersenF
Substitutes
  • 17O. BrynhildsenF
  • 1J. Faye LundG
  • 25I. MäättäD
  • 22J. MvukaM
  • 2V. NielsenD
  • 14U. SaltnesM
  • 28Assan SanyangM
  • 32K. SolhaugM
Coach: K. Knutsen
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. KobelG
  • 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
  • 3W. AntonD
  • 5R. BensebaïniD
  • 24D. SvenssonM
  • 7J. BellinghamM
  • 25J. VeermanM
  • 14M. BeierM
  • 19K. KaretsasM
  • 40S. InacioM
  • 21Fábio SilvaF
Substitutes
  • 30P. DrewesG
  • 20M. SabitzerM
  • 26J. RyersonD
  • 49L. ReggianiD
  • 36Kauã PratesD
  • 18E. NwaneriM
  • 8F. NmechaM
  • 33A. MeyerG
  • 39F. ManéD
Coach: N. Kovač

Form going into Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund

Bodo/Glimt

UEFA Champions League

  • L0-5away to Bayern München10 September 2026

Borussia Dortmund

UEFA Champions League

  • W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
25Bodo/Glimt411249-54
12Borussia Dortmund430175+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund

  • 10 December 2025Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Bodo/Glimt and Borussia Dortmund

Bodo/Glimt

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Borussia Dortmund

GoalsAssists

  • S. Guirassy40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bodo/Glimt beat Borussia Dortmund 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Borussia Dortmund at 42% and given a win for Bodo/Glimt 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Fredrik Sjovold 52' for Bodo/Glimt. On expected goals it finished 1.20–0.85.

How the call on Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund has moved

First published on 30 Sep at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 32% / 26% / 42%: the biggest move is Bodo/Glimt's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Bodo/Glimt win32%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Borussia Dortmund win42%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.