Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 AEK Athens FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Shakhtar Donetsk, 26% draw, 39% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
AEK Athens FC at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31D. RiznykG
- 17Vinícius TobiasD
- 5V. BondarD
- 22M. MatvienkoD
- 13PedrinhoD
- 27O. OcheretkoM
- 30Alisson SantanaM
- 10PedrinhoM
- 6Marlon GomesM
- 11NewerttonM
- 9Kauã EliasF
- 99BruninhoM
- 23K. FesyunG
- 25Gabriel CarvalhoF
- 14IsaqueM
- 20O. KaravaevM
- 8D. KryskivM
- 49Luca MeirellesF
- 37Lucas FerreiraM
- 77G. MendozaM
- 91A. BrignoliG
- 12L. RotaD
- 2H. MoukoudiD
- 44Filipe RelvasD
- 3S. PiliosD
- 14L. MajerM
- 27M. VitálisM
- 18R. MarinM
- 11A. KoitaM
- 90ZiniF
- 9L. JovićF
- 21D. VidaD
- 10O. ZubkovM
- 19B. VargaF
- 20P. MantalosM
- 22C. LykogiannisD
- 6K. KairinenM
- 23João MárioM
- 8M. GaćinovićM
- 41Marios BalamotisG
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
Shakhtar Donetsk
UEFA Champions League
- D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven10 September 2026
AEK Athens FC
UEFA Champions League
- W1-0Lask Linz8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
- 13 July 2023AEK Athens FC 5–0 Shakhtar DonetskFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Shakhtar Donetsk beat AEK Athens FC 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for AEK Athens FC at 39% and given a win for Shakhtar Donetsk 35%. The goals: Lovro Majer 28' for AEK Athens FC, Pedrinho (penalty) 34' for Shakhtar Donetsk, Vinícius Tobias 80' for Shakhtar Donetsk, Gleiker Mendoza 86' for Shakhtar Donetsk. On expected goals it finished 1.40–1.36.
How the call on Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens FC has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 26% / 27% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 35% / 26% / 39%: the biggest move is Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Shakhtar Donetsk win35%▲ +9
- Draw26%▼ −1
- AEK Athens FC win39%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.