14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Betis vs FC Porto UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Estadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla
Referee: Clement Turpin
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Real Betis 3-2 FC Porto.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Real Betis, 26% draw, 41% FC Porto — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Porto at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Betis95%Draw5%FC Porto0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

42'
•Borja Sainz
42'
Francesco Farioli
⚽Abde Ezzalzouliassist: Francisco José García Torres
47'
54'
⚽Gabri Veiga
56'
André Silva
Nelson Deossa
56'
Abde Ezzalzouli
56'
59'
🔁Borja Sainzout: Oskar Pietuszewski
59'
🔁André Silvaout: Samuel Aghehowa
59'
🔁Martim Fernandesout: Alberto Costa
61'
⚽Samuel Aghehowaassist: Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa
🔁Nelson Deossaout: Dani Ceballos
62'
🔁Troy Parrottout: Cucho Hernández
62'
71'
🔁Gabri Veigaout: Hwang In-Beom
73'
Alan Gonzalo Varela
⚽Cucho Hernándezassist: Antony Matheus dos Santos
74'
Dani Ceballos
77'
•Ángel Ortiz
82'
⚽Isco (pen)
84'
85'
🔁Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossaout: Santiago Giménez
86'
Santiago Giménez
🔁Iscoout: Facundo Bernal
87'
🔁Marc Rocaout: Pablo Fornals
87'
🔁Antony Matheus dos Santosout: Rodrigo Riquelme
90'
Ángel Ortiz
90+3'

Match stats — Real Betis vs FC Porto

56%Possession44%
17Shots11
7On target5
5Corners1
1.76xG1.02

Goals against chances

Real Betis3 from 1.76 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Porto2 from 1.02 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Betis 4-2-3-1
  • 1Álvaro VallésG
  • 12Ángel OrtizD
  • 5Marc BartraD
  • 4NatanD
  • 11Fran GarcíaD
  • 18N. DeossaM
  • 21Marc RocaM
  • 7AntonyM
  • 22IscoM
  • 10A. EzzalzouliM
  • 19T. ParrottF
Substitutes
  • 6F. BernalM
  • 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
  • 27J. A. MoranteF
  • 20G. Lo CelsoM
  • 3Diego LlorenteD
  • 9C. HernándezF
  • 16V. GómezD
  • 2Héctor BellerínD
  • 25Dani CeballosM
Coach: M. Pellegrini
FC Porto 4-3-3
  • 99Diogo CostaG
  • 52Martim FernandesD
  • 13P. RosarioD
  • 4J. KiwiorD
  • 74Francisco MouraD
  • 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
  • 22A. VarelaM
  • 10Gabri VeigaM
  • 17Borja SainzF
  • 19André SilvaF
  • 11Pepê AquinoF
Substitutes
  • 42S. FofanaM
  • 29S. GiménezF
  • 64Luís GomesD
  • 16Hwang In-BeomM
  • 18N. PérezD
  • 77O. PietuszewskiF
  • 9SamuF
  • 33SouzaD
  • 92João Pedro Moreira TeixeiraM
Coach: F. Farioli

Form going into Real Betis vs FC Porto

Real Betis

UEFA Champions League

  • W3-2away to Lille8 September 2026

FC Porto

UEFA Champions League

  • L0-2Manchester City8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Real Betis430186+29
26FC Porto410367-13

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Real Betis beat FC Porto 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Porto at 41% and given a win for Real Betis 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Abde Ezzalzouli 47' for Real Betis, Gabri Veiga 54' for FC Porto, Samuel Aghehowa 61' for FC Porto, Cucho Hernández 74' for Real Betis, Isco (penalty) 84' for Real Betis. On expected goals it finished 1.76–1.02.

How the call on Real Betis v FC Porto has moved

First published on 30 Sep at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 26% / 41%: the biggest move is FC Porto's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Real Betis win33%=
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. FC Porto win41%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.