31 August 2026, 02:10 UTC

Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Monterrey 1-3 Atletico San Luis.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Monterrey, 29% draw, 28% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Monterrey at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Monterrey0%Draw1%Atletico San Luis99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽D. Rodriguez
•Omar Galvez
22'
36'
⚽R. Llorenteassist: O. Macias
45+3'
Eduardo Águila
🔁I. Fimbresout: A. Aceves
46'
🔁J. Rodriguezout: O. Torres
46'
🔁U. Djurdjevicout: O. Pineda
46'
Alonso Aceves
58'
66'
Anderson Duarte
🔁E. Aguirreout: D. Rossi
67'
🔁O. Galvezout: H. Cuypers
67'
68'
🔁R. Llorenteout: L. Flores
70'
🔁M. Garciaout: B. Galindo
⚽H. Cuypersassist: F. Ambriz
73'
74'
🔁A. Duarteout: A. Cruz
74'
🔁D. Rodriguezout: R. Meraz
79'
⚽O. Maciasassist: L. Flores
84'
🔁O. Maciasout: S. Perez

Match stats — Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis

72%Possession28%
26Shots9
8On target4
14Corners1
2xG1.19

Goals against chances

Monterrey1 from 2.00 xGless than the chances were worth
Atletico San Luis3 from 1.19 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Monterrey 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. CardenasG
  • 14E. AguirreD
  • 30J. RodriguezD
  • 13C. SalcedoD
  • 21L. ReyesD
  • 5F. AmbrizM
  • 11I. FimbresM
  • 10L. OrellanoM
  • 27R. de la RosaM
  • 200O. GalvezM
  • 32U. DjurdjevicF
Substitutes
  • 1E. AndradaG
  • 2R. ChavezD
  • 19A. AcevesD
  • 18C. GarzaM
  • 8O. TorresM
  • 25O. PinedaM
  • 17J. CoronaM
  • 9D. RossiM
  • 99H. CuypersF
Coach: Matias Almeyda
Atletico San Luis 5-4-1
  • 1A. SanchezG
  • 2R. TorresD
  • 3Robson BambuD
  • 14M. GarciaD
  • 31E. AguilaD
  • 17A. DuarteD
  • 11D. RodriguezM
  • 13J. CaicedoM
  • 21O. MaciasM
  • 10S. Salles-LamongeM
  • 22R. LlorenteF
Substitutes
  • 25M. G. LajudG
  • 18A. CruzD
  • 16Lucas EstevesD
  • 30B. GalindoD
  • 26S. PerezM
  • 5R. MerazM
  • 7B. GaldamesM
  • 19S. MunozF
  • 8R. NajeraM
Coach: Raul Chabrand

Form going into Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis

Monterrey

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Leon22 August 2026
  • W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Necaxa26 July 2026
  • W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026

Atletico San Luis

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1CF Pachuca23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Club America16 August 2026
  • D0-0Club Tijuana1 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Tigres UANL26 July 2026
  • L2-3Cruz Azul18 July 2026

What these results say

  • Monterrey scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Monterrey conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico San Luis did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico San Luis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Monterrey167362725+224
14Atletico San Luis165471924-519

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis

  • 4 April 2026Monterrey 1–2 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
  • 19 July 2025Atletico San Luis 0–1 MonterreyLiga MX
  • 23 February 2025Monterrey 3–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
  • 8 December 2024Monterrey 5–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
  • 5 December 2024Atletico San Luis 2–1 MonterreyLiga MX
  • 5 October 2024Atletico San Luis 1–0 MonterreyLiga MX

The full Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis record →

Leading scorers: Monterrey and Atletico San Luis

Monterrey

GoalsAssists

  • L. Ocampos73
  • H. Cuypers61
  • D. Rossi53

Atletico San Luis

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico San Luis won 3–1 at Monterrey. The model had leaned towards a win for Monterrey at 43% and given a win for Atletico San Luis 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: D. Rodriguez 5' for Atletico San Luis, R. Llorente 36' for Atletico San Luis, H. Cuypers 73' for Monterrey, O. Macias 79' for Atletico San Luis. On expected goals it finished 2.00–1.19.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.