6 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Poznan
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Lech Poznan 1-0 Raków Częstochowa.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Lech Poznan, 28% draw, 26% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lech Poznan at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lech Poznan97%Draw3%Raków Częstochowa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Fran Tudor
Mateusz Skrzypczak
25'
Michal Gurgul
32'
40'
Tomasz Pieńko
🔁M. Skrzypczakout: T. Yegbe
46'
🔁L. Palmaout: P. Walemark
46'
46'
🔁A. Basseout: V. Kochergin
🔁Y. Agneroout: M. Ishak
54'
🔁A. Sayyadmaneshout: L. Bengtsson
68'
⚽L. Bengtssonassist: P. Rodriguez
71'
🔁F. Jagielloout: G. Berggren
75'
76'
🔁S. Svarnasout: I. Brusberg
79'
🔁F. Tudorout: J. Jendryka
79'
🔁P. Makuchout: A. Molnar
79'
🔁T. Pienkoout: M. Perovic
Wojciech Mońka
90+3'
90+4'
Mahir Emreli

Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa

52%Possession48%
28Shots8
6On target1
8Corners2
3.37xG0.4

Goals against chances

Lech Poznan1 from 3.37 xGless than the chances were worth
Raków Częstochowa0 from 0.40 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2J. PereiraD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 27W. MonkaD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 21P. RodriguezM
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshM
  • 24F. JagielloM
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
Substitutes
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 9M. IshakF
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 10P. WalemarkM
Coach: Niels Frederiksen
Raków Częstochowa 3-4-2-1
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 25B. RacovitanD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 20J. C. SilvaM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 21T. PienkoM
  • 9P. MakuchF
  • 99A. BasseF
  • 11M. EmreliF
Substitutes
  • 71T. KaricG
  • 29W. ZolneczkoG
  • 2J. NapierajD
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 77D. G. Debohi
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 22O. AbrahamM
  • 17J. JendrykaM
  • 88A. Molnar
Coach: David Szulczek

Form going into Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa

Lech Poznan

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Thun27 August 2026
  • W7-0FC Thun20 August 2026
  • W5-0away to KI Klaksvik14 August 2026

Raków Częstochowa

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
  • L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026
  • L2-3HNK Hajduk Split27 August 2026
  • D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split20 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lech Poznan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Lech Poznan had three goals or more.
  • Raków Częstochowa did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Lech Poznan1310213413+2132
16Raków Częstochowa1440102331-812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa

  • 1 March 2026Lech Poznan 4–3 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 24 September 2025Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 14 February 2025Lech Poznan 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 9 August 2024Raków Częstochowa 0–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 3 March 2024Raków Częstochowa 4–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Raków Częstochowa

Lech Poznan

GoalsAssists

  • P. Wålemark73
  • Pablo Rodríguez67
  • A. Sayyadmanesh50

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lech Poznan beat Raków Częstochowa 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lech Poznan at 46%. The goal: L. Bengtsson 71' for Lech Poznan. On expected goals it finished 3.37–0.40.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.