6 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Poznan
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Lech Poznan 1-0 Raków Częstochowa.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Lech Poznan, 28% draw, 26% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lech Poznan at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lech Poznan97%Draw3%Raków Częstochowa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Fran Tudor
Mateusz Skrzypczak
25'
Michal Gurgul
32'
40'
Tomasz Pieńko
🔁M. Skrzypczakout: T. Yegbe
46'
🔁L. Palmaout: P. Walemark
46'
46'
🔁A. Basseout: V. Kochergin
🔁Y. Agneroout: M. Ishak
54'
🔁A. Sayyadmaneshout: L. Bengtsson
68'
⚽L. Bengtssonassist: P. Rodriguez
71'
🔁F. Jagielloout: G. Berggren
75'
76'
🔁S. Svarnasout: I. Brusberg
79'
🔁F. Tudorout: J. Jendryka
79'
🔁P. Makuchout: A. Molnar
79'
🔁T. Pienkoout: M. Perovic
Wojciech Mońka
90+3'
90+4'
Mahir Emreli

Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa

52%Possession48%
28Shots8
6On target1
8Corners2
3.37xG0.4

Goals against chances

Lech Poznan1 from 3.37 xGless than the chances were worth
Raków Częstochowa0 from 0.40 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2J. PereiraD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 27W. MonkaD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 21P. RodriguezM
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshM
  • 24F. JagielloM
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
Substitutes
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 9M. IshakF
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 10P. WalemarkM
Coach: Niels Frederiksen
Raków Częstochowa 3-4-2-1
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 25B. RacovitanD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 20J. C. SilvaM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 21T. PienkoM
  • 9P. MakuchF
  • 99A. BasseF
  • 11M. EmreliF
Substitutes
  • 71T. KaricG
  • 29W. ZolneczkoG
  • 2J. NapierajD
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 77D. G. Debohi
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 22O. AbrahamM
  • 17J. JendrykaM
  • 88A. Molnar
Coach: David Szulczek

Form going into Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa

Lech Poznan

  • W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
  • W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026

Raków Częstochowa

  • L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
  • L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Lech Poznan7511126+616
18Raków Częstochowa81071018-83

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa

  • 6 September 2026Lech Poznan 1–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 1 March 2026Lech Poznan 4–3 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 24 September 2025Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 14 February 2025Lech Poznan 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 9 August 2024Raków Częstochowa 0–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 3 March 2024Raków Częstochowa 4–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Raków Częstochowa

Lech Poznan

  • A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals

Raków Częstochowa

  • P. Makuch5 goals
  • M. Emreli3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.