Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Wisla Plock.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Pogon Szczecin, 28% draw, 33% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pogon Szczecin at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 15H. AliD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 29L. WillenD
- 23B. MendyD
- 6J. BieganskiM
- 16P. DziczekM
- 47N. LawaM
- 21D. ChurlinovF
- 18P. MukairuF
- 35M. WojciechowskiF
- 33A. PeskovicG
- 89A. FojutG
- 41A. SzalaiD
- 75A. OssowskiD
- 3K. AcostaM
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 7M. JuwaraF
- 42P. ParyzekF
- 17J. NsameF
- 12R. LeszczynskiG
- 4M. Haglind-SangreD
- 35M. KaminskiD
- 34A. SilvaD
- 21Z. RogeljM
- 17A. RadwanskiM
- 5S. TavaresM
- 19D. GallapeniM
- 11J. JimenezF
- 20L. SekulskiF
- 23P. KunF
- 26J. BurekG
- 44P. MisiakD
- 41M. WieckowskiD
- 18J. PrsirM
- 6K. PomorskiM
- 88K. SavvidisM
- 16F. HiszpanskiM
- 7O. KobackiM
- 91G. KuchkoM
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
- D2-2Wisla Krakow23 August 2026
- W3-1Motor Lublin8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026
- L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026
Wisla Plock
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Korona Kielce28 August 2026
- L0-5away to GKS Katowice23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow7 August 2026
- D0-0Widzew Łódź31 July 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa26 July 2026
What these results say
- Wisla Plock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Plock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock
- 3 May 2026Pogon Szczecin 3–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 3 November 2025Wisla Plock 2–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 26 February 2023Wisla Plock 0–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 13 August 2022Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 8 April 2022Pogon Szczecin 1–2 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Wisla Plock
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Pogon Szczecin at 39% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Bieganski 52' for Pogon Szczecin, M. Haglind-Sangre 60' for Wisla Plock. On expected goals it finished 1.99–1.67.
How the call on Pogon Szczecin v Wisla Plock has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 28% / 33%: the biggest move is Wisla Plock's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Pogon Szczecin win39%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Wisla Plock win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.