Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Cracovia Krakow, 27% draw, 30% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cracovia Krakow at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze
Line-ups
- 13S. MadejskiG
- 25O. KakabadzeD
- 4G. HenrikssonD
- 61B. TraoreD
- 39M. PerkovicD
- 43M. KlichM
- 6A. Al AmmariM
- 14A. HasicM
- 20K. KnapM
- 47S. LtaiefM
- 11L. NordasF
- 23H. RavasG
- 77J. ChrapustaG
- 28V. BurletD
- 15K. GlikD
- 22D. BaumgartnerD
- 7M. PraszelikM
- 79D. PilaD
- 70D. KameriM
- 5B. SelanM
- 1P. SchulzeG
- 61M. SacekD
- 26R. JanickiD
- 20JosemaD
- 64E. JanzaD
- 14J. KubickiM
- 82K. UrbanskiM
- 8P. BernardoM
- 7Y. Ikia DimiF
- 9J. AntisteF
- 33M. KhlanF
- 99T. LoskaG
- 4P. BochniewiczD
- 21O. ZmrzlyD
- 2P. WarczakD
- 66M. DietzD
- 3M. SynosD
- 18L. SadilekM
- 28B. DonioM
- 23S. LisethF
Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze
Cracovia Krakow
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom29 August 2026
- W3-2Wieczysta Kraków21 August 2026
- W2-1Raków Częstochowa16 August 2026
- D0-0away to Slask Wroclaw9 August 2026
- L0-2Pogon Szczecin3 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa3 September 2026
- L2-3GKS Katowice30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Monaco27 August 2026
- L2-3Monaco20 August 2026
- W2-1Wisla Krakow16 August 2026
What these results say
- Cracovia Krakow conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Gornik Zabrze had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 12 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze
- 4 April 2026Gornik Zabrze 3–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 27 September 2025Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 28 February 2025Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 24 August 2024Cracovia Krakow 3–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 3 May 2024Cracovia Krakow 5–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Gornik Zabrze
Cracovia Krakow
GoalsAssists
- A. Hasić72
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gornik Zabrze won 1–0 at Cracovia Krakow. The model had leaned towards a win for Cracovia Krakow at 43% and given a win for Gornik Zabrze 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: K. Urbanski (penalty) 81' for Gornik Zabrze.
How the call on Cracovia Krakow v Gornik Zabrze has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is Cracovia Krakow's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Cracovia Krakow win43%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Gornik Zabrze win30%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.