Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Jagiellonia 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Jagiellonia, 28% draw, 29% Slask Wroclaw — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jagiellonia at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50S. AbramowiczG
- 15N. WojtuszekD
- 5B. VitalD
- 23G. MontoiaD
- 2C. PolakD
- 6T. RomanczukM
- 19A. KlyngeM
- 30O. SowM
- 21S. LozanoM
- 7K. SzmytM
- 99N. PrelecF
- 1M. PerchelG
- 27R. ConceicaoD
- 44A. KonstantopoulosD
- 20B. WdowikD
- 11J. ImazM
- 14H. FinndellM
- 85E. KozlowskiM
- 8D. DrachalM
- 32A. CirkovicF
- 1K. NiemczyckiG
- 21A. TimossiD
- 33Y. MatsenkoD
- 5L. BaD
- 44M. MalecD
- 8M. LlinaresD
- 7P. Samiec-TalarM
- 20G. TomasiewiczM
- 77E. ShabaniM
- 19P. BanaszakF
- 10P. M. DembeleF
- 25M. SzromnikG
- 3I. Christodoulou
- 2D. SzalaD
- 26A. ZulewskiD
- 4M. DijakovicD
- 17K. LinettyM
- 15J. YriarteM
- 11L. MarjanacF
- 9Ieltsin CamoesF
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw
Jagiellonia
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
- W5-2away to Raków Częstochowa30 August 2026
- L0-2Widzew Łódź9 August 2026
Slask Wroclaw
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa28 August 2026
- D3-3Widzew Łódź22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Jagiellonia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw
- 6 September 2026Jagiellonia 2–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 16 May 2025Slask Wroclaw 1–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 22 November 2024Jagiellonia 2–2 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 8 March 2024Jagiellonia 3–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 26 September 2023Jagiellonia 2–0 Slask WroclawCup
- 3 September 2023Slask Wroclaw 2–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec3 goals1 assists
Slask Wroclaw
- P. Samiec-Talar4 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.