Leicester vs Wigan League One prediction & result
Final score: Leicester 3-0 Wigan.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Leicester, 28% draw, 25% Wigan — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Leicester at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leicester vs Wigan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29A. McCarthyG
- 16W. O'HoraD
- 15H. SouttarD
- 5C. OkoliD
- 37W. AlvesM
- 12W. SmallboneM
- 25L. PageM
- 33L. ThomasM
- 8C. ChaplinM
- 27K. DoyleM
- 17E. RiisF
- 21F. RavizzoliG
- 24I. KangasniemiD
- 20H. HowellF
- 14B. De Cordova-ReidF
- 11L. CullenF
- 7W. BurnsF
- 36S. BraybrookeM
- 41J. WhitworthG
- 2C. BarrettD
- 4J. Chilokoa-MullenD
- 23J. CarragherD
- 5F. BurnsD
- 21K'Marni MillerD
- 6J. WeirM
- 10R. WalshM
- 27B. BurrowsM
- 11D. CostelloeF
- 25S. HoganF
- 1J. WalshG
- 19C. SzeF
- 38C. SaydeeF
- 22J. MellishD
- 17A. HigginsF
- 3M. FoxD
- 55R. GreenhalghF
Form going into Leicester vs Wigan
Leicester
League One
- L1-2away to Luton24 October 2026
- W4-0away to Bromley20 October 2026
- W2-1Doncaster17 October 2026
Wigan
League One
- L1-2away to Huddersfield24 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
| 19 | Wigan | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leicester vs Wigan
- 4 January 2020Leicester 2–0 WiganFA Cup
- 1 April 2014Wigan 2–2 LeicesterChampionship
- 14 September 2013Leicester 2–0 WiganChampionship
Leading scorers: Leicester and Wigan
Leicester
GoalsAssists
- E. Riis61
Wigan
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leicester beat Wigan 3–0. The model had made a win for Leicester its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Emil Riis Jakobsen 17' for Leicester, Emil Riis Jakobsen 67' for Leicester, Bobby Reid (penalty) 90+2' for Leicester. On expected goals it finished 2.91–1.07.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leicester a 7.8% chance to finish in the bottom four: 5.9% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.9%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.
For Wigan the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 41.9% going in: 35.1% after a win, 40.9% after a draw, 45.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.7%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Leicester v Wigan has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 57% / 26% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Leicester's chance of winning, down 10 points.
- Leicester win47%▼ −10
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Wigan win25%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.