Oxford United vs Stockport County League One prediction & result
Final score: Oxford United 1-0 Stockport County.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Oxford United, 27% draw, 30% Stockport County — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Oxford United at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oxford United vs Stockport County
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. CummingG
- 30P. KiosoD
- 6M. HelikD
- 3C. BrownD
- 26J. CurrieD
- 8C. BrannaganM
- 32L. SibleyM
- 20L. LynchM
- 11T. GoodrhamM
- 23S. DembéléM
- 9M. HarrisF
- 4Kai AndrewsM
- 13S. EastwoodG
- 10A. EmakhuF
- 2S. LongD
- 57M. MissangaF
- 19G. O'DonkorF
- 15B. SpencerD
- 1Oliver WhatmuffG
- 25M. JobeD
- 6E. O'ConnellD
- 5E. PyeD
- 15R. GloverM
- 4L. BateM
- 10O. NorwoodM
- 23B. OsbornM
- 16H. WoodM
- 9B. AndréssonM
- 19K. WoottonF
- 22M. MandronF
- 28C. GardnerF
- 18L. FioriniM
- 30Ethan EnnisF
- 7J. DiamondF
- 2J. Dacres-CogleyD
- 20J. AdigunM
Form going into Oxford United vs Stockport County
Oxford United
League One
- D0-0Bradford24 October 2026
- W2-1Wigan20 October 2026
Stockport County
League One
- D1-1away to Notts County24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Doncaster20 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Oxford United | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Oxford United and Stockport County
Oxford United
GoalsAssists
- M. Harris61
- G. O'Donkor42
Stockport County
GoalsAssists
- K. Wootton102
- J. Diamond63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Oxford United a 41.4% chance to finish in the top two: 45.9% after a win, 40.3% after a draw, 33.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.9%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.
For Stockport County the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 24.8% going in: 30.8% after a win, 23.5% after a draw, 21.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.