27 October 2026, 20:15 UTC

Sporting CP vs Maritimo Taça da Liga prediction & result

Lisbon
Referee: I. Vasilica
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sporting CP 2-1 Maritimo.

Before kick-off the model made it 84% Sporting CP, 10% draw, 6% Maritimo — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting CP at 84%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting CP99%Draw1%Maritimo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

39'
R. Fernandes
⚽Pedro Limaassist: J. Derry
44'
E. Quaresma
57'
59'
🔁M. Bassouaminaout: A. Butzke
59'
🔁M. Boakyeout: M. Tejon
⚽Pedro Lima
71'
72'
🔁R. Andradeout: I. Alani
🔁M. Zekriout: R. Dias
73'
🔁J. Derryout: P. Cardoso
73'
🔁Pedro Limaout: M. Couto
78'
🔁F. Ioannidisout: R. Nel
85'
🔁J. Simoesout: S. Justo
85'
85'
🔁S. Bouzaidiout: S. Bamba
85'
🔁Raphael Guzzoout: I. Ayuma
90'
⚽A. Butzkeassist: Igor Juliao

Line-ups

Sporting CP
  • 1R. Silva
  • 13G. Vagiannidis
  • 72E. Quaresma
  • 73E. Felicissimo
  • 18M. Zekri
  • 4S. Andersen
  • 8J. Simoes
  • 10G. Catamo
  • 21Pedro Lima
  • 28J. Derry
  • 7F. Ioannidis
Substitutes
  • 41Diego Callai
  • 99F. Silva
  • 95L. Taibo Dominguez
  • 50R. Dias
  • 70S. Blopa
  • 40M. Tanlongo
  • 96S. Justo
  • 9R. Nel
  • 76R. Rodrigues
Coach: Rui Borges
Maritimo
  • 1G. Tabuaco
  • 2Igor Juliao
  • 4R. Fernandes
  • 44R. Correia
  • 22G. Szalai
  • 23P. Henrique
  • 11S. Bouzaidi
  • 6R. Andrade
  • 14Raphael Guzzo
  • 12M. Bassouamina
  • 90M. Boakye
Substitutes
  • 13A. Pastor
  • 30F. Vieites
  • 3N. Ogbeta
  • 15T. Tavares
  • 5Nilton
  • 21I. Alani
  • 10M. Tejon
  • 66I. Ayuma
  • 35B. Limbombe
Coach: Mitchell van der Gaag

Form going into Sporting CP vs Maritimo

Sporting CP

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Academico Viseu25 October 2026
  • L2-3Lask Linz21 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Lens13 October 2026
  • W3-1away to SC Braga9 October 2026
  • D2-2Arouca19 September 2026

Maritimo

Primeira Liga

  • L0-5away to Vitória SC23 October 2026
  • L1-2FC Porto10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026

What these results say

  • Sporting CP scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting CP conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting CP had three goals or more.
  • Maritimo did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Maritimo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Maritimo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Sporting CP

Maritimo and Sporting CP have met 7 times in the records we hold, Sporting CP has won 5 of them to Maritimo's 1, with 1 drawn.

The record

Sporting CP won the last one 2–1 on 27 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Maritimo115516
Sporting CP511165

Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 27 Oct 2026
    Taça da Liga    Sporting CP 2–1 Maritimo
  • 13 May 2023
    Primeira Liga    Sporting CP 2–1 Maritimo
  • 8 Jan 2023
    Primeira Liga    Maritimo 1–0 Sporting CP
  • 13 Dec 2022
    Taça da Liga    Sporting CP 5–0 Maritimo
  • 26 Feb 2022
    Primeira Liga    Maritimo 1–1 Sporting CP
  • 24 Sep 2021
    Primeira Liga    Sporting CP 1–0 Maritimo
  • 19 May 2021
    Primeira Liga    Sporting CP 5–1 Maritimo

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Sporting CP's attack rates 111% above Maritimo's, and Sporting CP concede 47% fewer than Maritimo. That gives Sporting CP the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Maritimo0.751.52
Sporting CP1.580.80

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

The result against the call

Sporting CP beat Maritimo 2–1. The model had made a win for Sporting CP its most likely outcome, at 84%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Pedro Lima 44' for Sporting CP, Pedro Lima 71' for Sporting CP, A. Butzke 90' for Maritimo.

How the call on Sporting CP v Maritimo has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 78% / 14% / 8% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 84% / 10% / 6%: the biggest move is Sporting CP's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Sporting CP win84%▲ +6
  2. Draw10%▼ −4
  3. Maritimo win6%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.