24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons League One prediction & result

Lamex Stadium, Stevenage
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Stevenage 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Stevenage, 27% draw, 21% Milton Keynes Dons — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stevenage at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stevenage0%Draw5%Milton Keynes Dons95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Alex Gilbey
Josh Magennis
9'
25'
Aaron Collins
Carl Piergianni
35'
44'
Jack Sanders
🔁Luther Wildinout: Kaelan Casey
62'
🔁Ben Broggioout: O. Sanderson
63'
81'
⚽Sam Nombeassist: Aaron Collins
82'
🔁Dan Crowleyout: Ben Wiles
82'
🔁Sam Nombeout: Callum Paterson
🔁Daniel Phillipsout: Terry·Taylor
84'
🔁Michael Mellonout: Phoenix Patterson
85'
🔁Daniel Kempout: Chem Campbell
90'
90+4'
🔁Samuel Silveraout: Gethin Jones
90+4'
🔁Aaron Collinsout: ibrahim fullah

Match stats — Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons

60%Possession40%
10Shots11
2On target4
7Corners9
0.53xG1.96

Goals against chances

Stevenage0 from 0.53 xGless than the chances were worth
Milton Keynes Dons1 from 1.96 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Stevenage 4-4-1-1
  • 1T. SetfordG
  • 2L. James-WildinD
  • 15T. VancootenD
  • 5C. PiergianniD
  • 14S. EarleyD
  • 10D. KempM
  • 23L. ThompsonM
  • 8D. PhillipsM
  • 27B. BroggioM
  • 28M. MellonM
  • 9J. MagennisF
Substitutes
  • 19T. TurhanF
  • 7T. TaylorM
  • 18O. SandersonF
  • 44P. PattersonF
  • 16K. CaseyD
  • 20C. CampbellM
  • 12D. BardenG
Coach: A. Revell
Milton Keynes Dons 3-1-4-2
  • 23W. DennisG
  • 21M. EkpitetaD
  • 5C. GoodeD
  • 32J. SandersD
  • 24R. WintleM
  • 17S. SilveraM
  • 7D. CrowleyM
  • 8A. GilbeyM
  • 20Elijah Xavier CampbellM
  • 9S. NombeF
  • 10A. CollinsF
Substitutes
  • 26B. WilesF
  • 13C. PatersonF
  • 2G. JonesD
  • 22I. FullahM
  • 15C. BramallD
  • 4D. BarlaserM
  • 51S. StaceyG
Coach: P. Warne

Form going into Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons

Stevenage

League One

  • W3-0Plymouth20 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Bradford17 October 2026
  • W1-0Wigan10 October 2026

Milton Keynes Dons

League One

  • L0-2away to Blackpool20 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Stevenage124441713+416
9Milton Keynes Dons145632822+621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons

  • 26 July 2025Stevenage 2–1 Milton Keynes DonsFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 November 2021Stevenage 2–1 Milton Keynes DonsFA Cup
  • 6 November 2021Milton Keynes Dons 2–2 StevenageFA Cup
  • 6 October 2020Stevenage 2–3 Milton Keynes DonsEFL Trophy
  • 18 August 2020Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 StevenageFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 September 2019Stevenage 0–3 Milton Keynes DonsEFL Trophy

Leading scorers: Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons

Stevenage

No player in League One's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Milton Keynes Dons

GoalsAssists

  • A. Collins133

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Milton Keynes Dons won 1–0 at Stevenage. The model had leaned towards a win for Stevenage at 52% and given a win for Milton Keynes Dons 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Sam Nombe 81' for Milton Keynes Dons. On expected goals it finished 0.53–1.96.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Milton Keynes Dons a 43.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 33.1% after a win, 43.9% after a draw, 46.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.1%, 10 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stevenage v Milton Keynes Dons has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 27% / 21%: the biggest move is Stevenage's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Stevenage win52%▲ +8
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. Milton Keynes Dons win21%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.