Leon vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Leon 2-0 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Leon, 26% draw, 29% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leon at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leon vs Monterrey
Leon
- W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
Monterrey
- W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leon vs Monterrey
- 15 February 2026Monterrey 1–0 LeonLiga MX
- 12 August 2025Leon 1–3 MonterreyLiga MX
- 21 April 2025Leon 0–2 MonterreyLiga MX
- 11 November 2024Monterrey 2–1 LeonLiga MX
- 20 April 2024Leon 2–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 17 September 2023Monterrey 3–1 LeonLiga MX
Leading scorers: Leon and Monterrey
Leon
- D. Cambindo3 goals1 assists
- D. Arcila3 goals
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.