Leon vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Leon 2-0 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Leon, 26% draw, 29% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Leon at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leon vs Monterrey
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23O. GarciaG
- 4B. ColulaD
- 14J. RomanaD
- 3J. GuevaraD
- 5S. VegasD
- 29I. RodriguezM
- 16J. CortizoM
- 35L. ValadezM
- 6F. Beltran Cruz
- 13D. ArcilaM
- 27D. CambindoF
- 12J. GonzalezG
- 185C. Mora
- 26S. ReyesM
- 25P. BellonD
- 8J. P. Dominguez ChontecoM
- 22S. SantosM
- 203J. LaraD
- 7I. MorenoD
- 11I. DiazF
- 22L. CardenasG
- 2R. ChavezD
- 4V. GuzmanD
- 30J. RodriguezD
- 3G. ArteagaD
- 5F. AmbrizM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 9D. RossiM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 31C. RamosG
- 21L. ReyesD
- 14E. AguirreM
- 11I. FimbresM
- 18C. GarzaM
- 8O. TorresM
- 200O. GalvezM
- 27R. de la RosaF
- 10L. OrellanoF
Form going into Leon vs Monterrey
Leon
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
- L2-3Atlas18 July 2026
Monterrey
All competitions we cover
- W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa26 July 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026
What these results say
- Leon scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Leon conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Monterrey scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Monterrey won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Monterrey conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leon vs Monterrey
- 15 February 2026Monterrey 1–0 LeonLiga MX
- 12 August 2025Leon 1–3 MonterreyLiga MX
- 21 April 2025Leon 0–2 MonterreyLiga MX
- 11 November 2024Monterrey 2–1 LeonLiga MX
- 20 April 2024Leon 2–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 17 September 2023Monterrey 3–1 LeonLiga MX
Leading scorers: Leon and Monterrey
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado61
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos73
- H. Cuypers61
- D. Rossi53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leon beat Monterrey 2–0. The model had made a win for Leon its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Cortizo 24' for Leon, D. Arcila (penalty) 79' for Leon. Sent off: Jhohan Romaña (Leon) 66'. On expected goals it finished 1.71–1.31.