Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: Levski Sofia 6-0 Spartak Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Levski Sofia, 23% draw, 16% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 61% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 92Svetoslav VutsovG
- 2Hevertton SantosD
- 18Gašper TrdinM
- 4Christian MakounD
- 20Álex CentellesD
- 35SerginhoM
- 10Asen Ivanov MitkovM
- 27David KussoM
- 22Mazire SoulaM
- 11Armstrong Oko-FlexM
- 9Juan PereaF
- 3MaiconD
- 8Marko GrujićM
- 19El Mehdi MoubarikM
- 77Adrian RaychevM
- 28Steven StoyanchovF
- 1Ognyan VladimirovG
- 50Kristian DimitrovD
- 31Nikola SerafimovD
- 21AldairD
- 23Plamen IlievG
- 76David Valverde JuanM
- 44Angel GranchovD
- 45Joey TshitokuD
- 4Boris IvanovD
- 17Tsvetoslav MarinovM
- 72Vasco OliveiraD
- 77Anton IvanovF
- 11Boubacar HanneF
- 7BuáM
- 70Ahmed AhmedovF
- 6Ricardo SousaM
- 10Jota LopesM
- 82Tomás SilvaM
- 9Tsvetelin ChunchukovF
- 19Sámuel MajorM
- 1Pedro VictorG
- 3Mateo Jurić-PetrašiloD
- 80Ángel Gomes ArevaloF
- 99Georgi TrifonovF
Form going into Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Levski Sofia
- D0-0AEK Athens FC18 August 2026
- W1-0away to Kairat Almaty11 August 2026
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 August 2026
- W1-0Kairat Almaty4 August 2026
- W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
Spartak Varna
- L0-1Septemvri Sofia17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna
- 22 August 2026Levski Sofia 6–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 7 December 2025Spartak Varna 1–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 10 August 2025Levski Sofia 2–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 21 February 2025Levski Sofia 2–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 31 August 2024Spartak Varna 0–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 6 November 2022Spartak Varna 2–2 Levski SofiaFirst League