Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Ludogorets 1-1 Slavia Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Ludogorets, 30% draw, 13% Slavia Sofia — fair odds of 1.75, 3.33 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 57% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 39Hendrik BonmannG
- 2Joel AnderssonD
- 15Edvin KurtulusD
- 42Simeon ShishkovD
- 3Anton NedyalkovD
- 26Filip KaločM
- 23Deroy DuarteM
- 20Aguibou CamaraM
- 18Ivajlo ChochevM
- 7Alberto SalidoF
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 9Kwadwo DuahF
- 17SonD
- 14Petar StanićM
- 11Caio VidalM
- 4Hossam AbdelmaguidD
- 1Sergio PadtG
- 55Idan NachmiasD
- 22Mihail Polen DakovD
- 5Georgi TerzievD
- 99Ivan AndonovG
- 87Diego FerraressoD
- 4Nikola SavićD
- 5David MalembanaD
- 26Dimitar BurovM
- 71Kristiyan StoyanovM
- 95Vladimir MiletićM
- 77Emil StoevM
- 7Roberto RaychevM
- 27Umaro BaldéM
- 88Vladimir NikolovF
- 24Lazar MarinD
- 20Jordan Semedo VarelaD
- 11Mouhamed DossoM
- 17Vasil KazaldzhievF
- 9Yoan BornosuzovF
- 63Levi NtumbaG
- 1Georgi PetkovG
- 3Martin GeorgievD
- 6Boris TodorovM
Form going into Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia
Ludogorets
- W2-0Botev Plovdiv15 August 2026
Slavia Sofia
- W3-0away to Botev Vratsa10 August 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Arda Kardzhali24 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia
- 22 August 2026Ludogorets 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 8 December 2025Ludogorets 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 9 August 2025Slavia Sofia 0–3 LudogoretsFirst League
- 1 December 2024Ludogorets 2–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 18 September 2024Slavia Sofia 0–1 LudogoretsFirst League
- 27 November 2023Ludogorets 2–3 Slavia SofiaFirst League