Club Queretaro vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Queretaro 1-2 Toluca.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Club Queretaro, 23% draw, 29% Toluca — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Queretaro at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Toluca
Club Queretaro
- D0-0away to Pumas UNAM16 August 2026
- W3-2Tigres UANL1 August 2026
Toluca
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 1 | Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Toluca
- 4 April 2026Club Queretaro 1–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 18 October 2025Toluca 4–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 27 February 2025Toluca 5–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 19 October 2024Club Queretaro 0–1 TolucaLiga MX
- 13 January 2024Club Queretaro 2–2 TolucaLiga MX
- 8 October 2023Toluca 3–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Toluca
Club Queretaro
- S. Homenchenko4 goals2 assists
- A. Ávila3 goals
Toluca
- F. Viñas3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.