18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Osasuna vs Racing Santander La Liga prediction & result

Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Osasuna 2-0 Racing Santander.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Osasuna, 23% draw, 29% Racing Santander — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Osasuna at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Osasuna99%Draw1%Racing Santander0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Jonathan Dubasin
5'
6'
Alvaro Mantilla
⚽Ante Budimir (pen)
9'
Valentin Rosier
28'
45'
🔁André Almeidaout: Andrés Martín
51'
Jorge Salinas Viadero
Ante Budimir
60'
🔁Moi Gómezout: Asier Osambela
67'
🔁Iker Muñoz Camerosout: Lucas Torró
67'
69'
🔁Sergio Canalesout: Pablo García
🔁Jonathan Dubasinout: Raul Moro
76'
🔁Valentin Rosierout: Íñigo Arguibide
76'
80'
Iván Martín
83'
🔁Jorge Salinas Viaderoout: Aarón Martin Caricol
83'
🔁Iván Martínout: Asier Villalibre
⚽Asier Osambela
88'
🔁Rubén Garcíaout: Raul García
90+1'
90+2'
🔁Yassir Zabiriout: Giorgi Guliashvili

Match stats — Osasuna vs Racing Santander

44%Possession56%
20Shots9
7On target1
7Corners4
3.42xG0.31

Goals against chances

Osasuna2 from 3.42 xGless than the chances were worth
Racing Santander0 from 0.31 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Osasuna 4-3-3
  • 13Aitor FernándezG
  • 19V. RosierD
  • 24CatenaD
  • 22F. BoyomoD
  • 23Abel BretonesD
  • 7MoncayolaM
  • 8Iker MuñozM
  • 16Moi GómezM
  • 14Rubén GarcíaF
  • 17A. BudimirF
  • 21Jonathan DubasinF
Substitutes
  • 11Kike BarjaF
  • 48R. YeboahD
  • 6Lucas TorróM
  • 35U. SantosD
  • 15Diego RicoD
  • 31Rafa FernándezG
  • 29Asier OsambelaM
  • 27Íñigo ArguibideD
  • 26Mauro EchegoyenM
Coach: Arrasate
Racing Santander 4-2-3-1
  • 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
  • 2Álvaro MantillaD
  • 5Pablo RamónD
  • 24J. BelocianD
  • 17Jorge SalinasD
  • 23Iván MartínM
  • 18M. PratiM
  • 20Sergio CanalesM
  • 8André AlmeidaM
  • 10Iñigo VicenteM
  • 21M. ZabiriF
Substitutes
  • 12Asier VillalibreF
  • 9Juan Carlos AranaF
  • 15Pablo GarcíaF
  • 6Íñigo Sainz-MazaM
  • 22Pedro FelipeD
  • 11Andrés MartínF
  • 3Aarón MartínD
  • 19Iker LuqueF
  • 7G. GuliashviliF
Coach: José Alberto López

Form going into Osasuna vs Racing Santander

Osasuna

La Liga

  • L2-5away to Real Betis11 October 2026

Racing Santander

La Liga

  • D2-2Valencia11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Osasuna123361223-1112
10Racing Santander124261730-1314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Racing Santander

  • 24 July 2026Osasuna 2–0 Racing SantanderFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 August 2025Osasuna 0–1 Racing SantanderFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 May 2012Racing Santander 2–4 OsasunaLa Liga
  • 15 January 2012Osasuna 0–2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • 13 March 2011Osasuna 3–1 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • 31 October 2010Racing Santander 4–1 OsasunaLa Liga

The full Osasuna vs Racing Santander record →

Leading scorers: Osasuna and Racing Santander

Osasuna

GoalsAssists

  • A. Budimir80

Racing Santander

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zabiri90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Osasuna beat Racing Santander 2–0. The model had made a win for Osasuna its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ante Budimir (penalty) 9' for Osasuna, Asier Osambela 88' for Osasuna. On expected goals it finished 3.42–0.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Osasuna a 35.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.5% after a win, 39.7% after a draw, 43.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.5%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.

For Racing Santander the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 42.4% going in: 32.3% after a win, 42.0% after a draw, 47.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.4%, 5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Osasuna v Racing Santander has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 44% / 26% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 23% / 29%: the biggest move is Osasuna's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Osasuna win48%▲ +4
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Racing Santander win29%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.