18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Madrid vs Sevilla La Liga prediction & result

Madrid
Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 Sevilla.

Before kick-off the model made it 69% Real Madrid, 19% draw, 12% Sevilla — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Real Madrid at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Madrid99%Draw1%Sevilla0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Felix Correia
Dean Huijsen
23'
⚽Arda Gülerassist: Yan Diomande
30'
⚽Kylian Mbappéassist: Jude Bellingham
37'
45'
🔁Rubén Vargasout: Chidera Ejuke
56'
🔁Robbie Ureout: Lucas Stassin
56'
🔁Peque Fernándezout: Manuel Bueno Sebastián
⚽Kylian Mbappé (pen)
63'
69'
Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez
🔁Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousaout: Brahim Díaz
69'
🔁Jude Bellinghamout: Bernardo Silva
69'
72'
🔁Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchezout: José Ángel Carmona
73'
🔁Felix Correiaout: Alfonso González Martínez
Marc Cucurella
73'
🔁Arda Gülerout: Eduardo Camavinga
78'
80'
⚽Manuel Bueno Sebastiánassist: Lucas Stassin
⚽Yan Diomandeassist: Aurelien Tchouameni
82'
🔁Kylian Mbappéout: Carlos Espí
84'
🔁Federico Valverdeout: Éder Militão
85'

Match stats — Real Madrid vs Sevilla

65%Possession35%
15Shots11
8On target5
1Corners2
2.36xG0.81

Goals against chances

Real Madrid4 from 2.36 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sevilla1 from 0.81 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. CourtoisG
  • 8F. ValverdeD
  • 16I. KonatéD
  • 4D. HuijsenD
  • 17Marc CucurellaD
  • 15A. GülerM
  • 14A. TchouaméniM
  • 9EndrickM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 25Y. DiomandeM
  • 10Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes
  • 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 24D. DumfriesD
  • 19Carlos EspíF
  • 18Álvaro FernándezD
  • 13A. LuninG
  • 3Éder MilitãoD
  • 20Bernardo SilvaM
  • 31Javier NavarroG
Coach: José Mourinho
Sevilla 4-2-3-1
  • 1O. VlachodimosG
  • 2Juan IglesiasD
  • 5Andrés CastrínD
  • 4Kike SalasD
  • 17G. SuazoD
  • 6L. AgouméM
  • 24Y. FofanaM
  • 11R. VargasM
  • 10Peque FernándezM
  • 20Félix CorreiaM
  • 9R. UreF
Substitutes
  • 15Fábio CardosoD
  • 14Manu BuenoM
  • 22José Ángel CarmonaD
  • 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
  • 21C. EjukeF
  • 13Fran GonzálezG
  • 7Alfon GonzálezF
  • 33Rafael RomeroG
  • 12A. SanganteD
Coach: Luis García

Form going into Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Real Madrid

La Liga

  • W1-0Villarreal10 October 2026

Sevilla

La Liga

  • D3-3away to Levante12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Real Madrid1210023110+2130
6Sevilla125341719-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Sevilla

  • 17 May 2026Sevilla 0–1 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 20 December 2025Real Madrid 2–0 SevillaLa Liga
  • 18 May 2025Sevilla 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 22 December 2024Real Madrid 4–2 SevillaLa Liga
  • 25 February 2024Real Madrid 1–0 SevillaLa Liga
  • 21 October 2023Sevilla 1–1 Real MadridLa Liga

The full Real Madrid vs Sevilla record →

Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Sevilla

Real Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Kylian Mbappé132
  • J. Bellingham43

Sevilla

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Madrid beat Sevilla 4–1. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 69%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Arda Güler 30' for Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé 37' for Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé (penalty) 63' for Real Madrid, Manuel Bueno Sebastián 80' for Sevilla, Yan Diomande 82' for Real Madrid. On expected goals it finished 2.36–0.81.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Madrid a 16.4% chance to win the league: 17.2% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 11.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.2%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

For Sevilla the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.8% going in: 10.5% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 6.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.1%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Real Madrid v Sevilla has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 60% / 23% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 69% / 19% / 12%: the biggest move is Real Madrid's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Real Madrid win69%▲ +9
  2. Draw19%▼ −4
  3. Sevilla win12%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.