Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Getafe 1-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Getafe, 34% draw, 32% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 2.94, 2.94 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Getafe at 34%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13David SoriaG
- 14Daniel CarvajalD
- 2D. DakonamD
- 26J. ValouD
- 22J. MojicaD
- 17Kiko FemeníaM
- 8N. GudeljM
- 6Mario MartínM
- 10M. SatrianoM
- 11Ramón TerratsF
- 19E. ÜnalF
- 21Andrés GarcíaD
- 16Francho SerranoM
- 4S. SazonovD
- 28Alberto RiscoM
- 9Borja MayoralF
- 1J. LetáčekG
- 35Diego FerrerG
- 3DavinchiD
- 5A. AbqarD
- 25E. AuderoG
- 20I. BalliuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 8Unai LópezM
- 6P. CissM
- 7Isi PalazónM
- 10Sergio CamelloM
- 18Álvaro GarcíaM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 33J. VertrouwdD
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
- 21Fran PérezF
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 36G. BouareM
Form going into Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
La Liga
- L0-3away to Barcelona10 October 2026
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
- D1-1away to Osasuna19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
- 3 May 2026Getafe 0–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 2 January 2026Rayo Vallecano 1–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 2 May 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 24 August 2024Getafe 0–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 13 April 2024Rayo Vallecano 0–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 2 January 2024Getafe 0–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Getafe and Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Rayo Vallecano
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Camello72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano drew 1–1. The goals: Álvaro García 11' for Rayo Vallecano, Martin Satriano 56' for Getafe. Sent off: Dakonam Ortega Djené (Getafe) 28'. On expected goals it finished 0.67–2.15.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Getafe a 24.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.4% after a win, 24.1% after a draw, 29.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 24.1%.
For Rayo Vallecano the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.7% going in: 6.2% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 12.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.4%.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.